In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, December 5th
UK and Rwanda Sign New Pact to Deport Asylum Seekers, US Efforts to Plan Ukraine Counteroffensive Yield Disappointing Results, and other stories.
UK and Rwanda Sign New Pact to Deport Asylum Seekers
The UK has signed a revised agreement with Rwanda this week to deport asylum seekers after a court ruling blocked an earlier policy attempt. The move reaffirms deepening anti-immigrant sentiment in the UK, and across much of Europe, as governments face pressures to curb migration flows.
Home Secretary James Cleverly's new pact tries balancing refugee protections with Conservative demands for reduced immigration before the 2024 elections. But analysts say the measures may worsen post-Brexit labour shortages. And huge ethical and legal questions remain unresolved. With similarly controversial efforts underway from Denmark to Austria, the UK's escalating deterrence tactics represent an early test of whether wealthy democracies are pivoting toward inhospitable stances in the face of 21st century migration flows.
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France Leverages Armenia Ties to Balance Against Turkey and the UK
France's recent sale of advanced air defence systems to Armenia represents the latest move in its long-running geopolitical rivalries with the UK and Turkey. Beyond any material significance for Armenia itself, the deal enables France to counter perceived British economic dominance in the South Caucasus and oppose Turkey's influence across the Middle East and North Africa.
The deeply rooted “Fashoda syndrome” compels France to undermine the UK's interests wherever possible, while its rivalry with Turkey in the Mediterranean and North Africa still colours bilateral relations. By gaining a new foothold in Armenia, France obstructs any potential rapprochement between Armenia and Turkey's ally Azerbaijan following their 2020 war. Thus, through military sales rather than energy ties, France has found a way to insert itself into regional dynamics targeting historic opponents.
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US Efforts to Plan Ukraine Counteroffensive Yield Disappointing Results
A months-long Pentagon effort to help Ukraine plan a decisive counteroffensive has yielded disappointing results. Despite extensive assistance from the United States with war-gaming scenarios, weapons transfers and training of Ukrainian brigades, Russia's fortified defences have largely blunted the assault's impact.
The account outlines disagreements between Washington and Kyiv over timing, tactics and force allocation. Ukraine ultimately attacked on three fronts instead of the focused southern thrust urged by the US. Now, there appears to be little chance Ukraine can achieve its territorial goals this year, as both sides seem destined for a bloody and indecisive war of attrition. The stalled campaign raises difficult questions for Ukraine's NATO backers about how long massive support can realistically be sustained.
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Global Arms Sales Decline Slightly in 2022
The world's 100 largest arms manufacturers saw their revenues decline slightly in 2022 due to production struggles, even as demand for weapons surged amid the war in Ukraine. According to new data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, total arms sales for the top 100 firms dropped 3.5% last year to $597 billion.
The drop was driven chiefly by falling revenues among major US defence contractors like Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, both of which faced labour and supply chain disruptions due to stringent US sanctions. Meanwhile, some companies in Asia and the Middle East managed increases, with Turkey's Baykar even entering the top 100 ranking for the first time. But massive order backlogs suggest the setback may prove temporary, as most firms stand to benefit enormously from the elevated threat perceptions stoked by an increasingly unstable international environment.
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Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan Signal Progress on Elusive Border Deal
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have signalled progress toward a long-elusive border demarcation deal following security chiefs' latest round of talks. The pact could ease decades of volatile tensions between the Central Asian neighbours after violence flared again last year.
Tajik officials indicated the two sides reached agreements ensuring each country permanent access to roads and lands located within the other's territory. Exact details remain unclear, but the remarks build on recent momentum in negotiations and presidents' hints that a breakthrough was near. If finalized, the border delineation would mark an important de-escalation after clashes killed dozens in 2021-2022. However, both militaries continue expanding capabilities, sparking fears any future fighting could prove deadlier than past episodes.
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Most Legislatures Lack Oversight of Militaries
A new study reveals that most democratic legislatures lack meaningful oversight of their militaries. Researchers examined 15 democracies worldwide and found that only Germany's Bundestag wields comparative influence over defence affairs. Many legislative bodies lack fundamentals for oversight like security clearances for members, subpoena power, and adequate staff resources.
The study identified two main factors shaping legislative oversight: the number and purview of defence committees, and executive control over them. More committees with a dedicated focus on defence enables greater monitoring of armed forces activities. However, executives can curb oversight by limiting committee independence and discretion. The research challenges assumptions that legislative guardians effectively guard the guardians in most democracies. Modest reforms like establishing exclusive defence committees and granting access to classified briefings could significantly improve accountability.