In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, December 14th
Armenia’s Relations with Turkey are Thawing and NATO Rebuilds Ukraine’s Navy
Armenia’s Relations with Turkey are Thawing
Armenia and Turkey have signalled a mutual willingness to move towards restoring diplomatic relations. After almost four decades have passed since borders between the two countries were closed, Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan, has expressed his readiness to reconcile ties with Turkey “without preconditions.” Turkey has been receptive to the idea, with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stating that Ankara would be open to the idea of diplomatic normalisation if Armenia expressed a “readiness to move in this direction.” The long-time foes have much to gain economically and politically if both go through with their pledges on normalisation.
Diplomatic relations between the two countries have long been defined by the mass killing of Armenians by the Ottoman Empire during World War I. Years later, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, ties between Armenia and Turkey were severed after the first Nagorno-Karabakh war. Since then, ties have remained indifferent at best. Turkey’s military assistance to Azerbaijan in last year’s iteration of the Nagorno-Karabakh war was instrumental in the eventual Azeri victory over Armenia. As a consequence of recent developments, Yerevan is keen to combat its regional economic and trade isolation at a time when Turkey’s strength is waning, and when it might be more open to deal directly with Yerevan without upsetting leadership in Baku.
Nevertheless, both stand to benefit economically from a move towards normalisation. In addition, Turkey may also gain geopolitically by facilitating positive relations between Yerevan and Baku so that Ankara may reap the political, economic, and diplomatic value derived from facilitating regional trade. As it stands, Armenia has closed borders with two of the four countries it borders, hindering access to Russia’s Eurasian Economic Union for many in the region. Yet as a landlocked state, Armenia could stand to benefit from an open border and active trade, which could work to facilitate economic development. Improving relations with Ankara may also allow Yerevan to rely less on Russia, thereby changing regional politics to an environment more conductive to Turkish interests going forward.
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NATO Rebuilds Ukraine’s Navy
When Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, it absorbed land, people and roughly 70 percent of Ukraine’s naval fleet. The losses were so great, they included the majority of Ukraine’s helicopters and the bulk of the country’s ship repair capacity. With the naval base at Sevastapol now gone, the Ukrainian Navy essentially set out to create a new naval force. In the time since then, close cooperation with the United States, the United Kingdom and other NATO members has allowed Ukraine to quickly rebuild its fleet in tandem with its ground and special operations forces.
Now Ukraine is eager to invest in naval capabilities as the country joins interoperability operations with NATO forces. In practical terms, Ukraine’s efforts at rebuilding its naval capabilities have so far led to a fleet of small vessels fit for carrying out near-shore operations. Ukraine is deliberately rebuilding its navy with ships obtained from NATO nations in the hopes that implementing NATO-compliant standards aboard NATO-sources vessels within the Ukrainian Navy will speed up the country’s NATO accession. In addition, the Ukrainian Navy now regularly participates in regional NATO exercises and operations, such as the Black Sea Maritime Domain Awareness project, which is led by the United States and involves, Bulgaria, Georgia and Romania.
Of the vessels Ukraine is seeking for its Navy, the country is rumoured to have already placed a formal request to purchase two Ada-class corvettes. These advanced multipurpose corvettes are able to conduct a wide a range of missions, including reconnaissance, surveillance, anti-submarine warfare, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air warfare. In addition, Ukraine has received two of the five expected former US Coastguard ships. Going forward, this trend may continue as Kiev pours more of its resources toward increased naval capabilities in the Black Sea.
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