In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, December 12th
India Supreme Court Ruling Consolidates Hold on Kashmir, Vietnam and China Forge Closer Ties Despite Disputes, and other stories.
India Supreme Court Ruling Consolidates Hold on Kashmir
India's Supreme Court upheld the 2019 decision by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government to revoke the special autonomous status granted to the state of Jammu and Kashmir under Article 370 of the constitution. This confirmation allows India to move forward with efforts to further integrate Jammu and Kashmir by holding long-awaited local elections by September 2024. However, the court ruling is seen as deepening grievances and tensions in the Muslim-majority region contested by India and Pakistan since 1947.
The revocation of Article 370 enabled India to split Jammu and Kashmir into two federally administered territories under Delhi's control. While the government argues this facilitated development in the region, it is also a bid to change the demographics in what was India's only Muslim-majority state. By greenlighting India's reorganization of Kashmir, the court ruling aligns with Hindu nationalist stances that resonate with Modi's base ahead of 2024 elections. However, exile Kashmiri groups and local leaders have vowed to continue fighting what they see as violation of the region's rights.
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Houthi Rebels Attack Another Tanker in the Red Sea
A Norwegian-owned chemical tanker came under missile fire in the Red Sea on Monday, in an attack claimed by Yemen's Houthi rebels. The vessel, Strinda, was hit by at least one missile roughly 90 kilometres north of the Bab el-Mandab Strait. It suffered a fire, but no casualties were reported. The United States Navy destroyer Mason responded to distress calls.
The strike is the latest in a series of attacks targeting commercial shipping in the Red Sea. It follows France reporting that one of its frigates in the area had shot down Houthi drones last week. Earlier this month, missiles fired from Houthi territory struck three cargo vessels near Yemen's coast. The rise in attacks comes despite new efforts to establish an international maritime security task force, proposed by the US after recent Houthi raids. It threatens a vital global trade route even as the rebel clashes with Saudi-led coalition forces rage on.
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Kazakhstan Pursues Ambitious Renewable Energy Expansion
Kazakhstan is rapidly expanding its renewable energy sector, with ambitious targets to generate 15% of its electricity from renewables by 2030 and 50% by 2050. Major deals were recently struck at the COP28 climate summit by companies like Masdar, TotalEnergies and ACWA Power to build large-scale wind power plants totalling 3 gigawatts of capacity. This builds on Kazakhstan's existing 2.5 gigawatts of renewable generation.
The government hopes to attract smaller investors as well through competitive auctions that have gained interest from European and Chinese companies. The state offers incentives like guaranteed purchase agreements and tax breaks. The growth is notable, with renewables accounting for 25% more power generation over the first 9 months of 2022 than 2021. Kazakhstan still relies on coal for 70% of its electricity. Meeting steep targets will require both weather-resilient sources to back up intermittent renewables and regional grid connections to balance supply and demand across neighbours.
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Hungary a Roadblock to Ukraine's EU Hope
Hungary has emerged as a leading sceptic of Ukraine's aspirations to join the European Union, with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán urging the EU to drop plans to open accession talks. Orbán argues the lack of consensus among the 27 member states on admitting Ukraine inevitably dooms its bid. His stance aligns Hungary with Russia while straining Orbán's relations with Brussels and other European capitals supporting Ukraine.
Orbán claims admitting Ukraine could negatively impact Hungary's economy. His government also insists that the country falls short of EU standards on corruption and the rule of law. Additionally, Budapest seeks to leverage its veto power over accession to unfreeze billions in EU funds frozen over what Brussels brands democratic deficiencies. With the EU set to decide on aid for Ukraine and Hungary's funding in parallel, Orbán opposes Ukraine's integration to gain leverage in negotiations. But Orbán risks further damaging Hungary's standing if he blocks the step of opening accession talks.
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Vietnam and China Forge Closer Ties Despite Disputes
Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Vietnam resulted in the two communist neighbours consenting to construct a “shared future community.” The diplomatic upgrade came with 37 cooperation deals, despite lingering South China Sea disputes. Most symbolically, Vietnam agreed to support China's concept of a “community of common destiny for mankind” after initially rejecting the term.
While the shared future language signals improved ties, distrust remains strong in Vietnam towards China. However, both sides touted economic links as priorities, signing deals on railway development and rare earth mineral supply chains. The railway set for expansion connects Haiphong port in northern Vietnam with Kunming in southern China, traversing major Vietnamese rare earth deposits. Such projects stand to serve Vietnam's industrialization and export ambitions while advancing bilateral trade already worth billions. With Xi's trip coming months after Vietnam elevated relations with the United States to a strategic partnership, it spotlights Hanoi's skilful balancing between the superpowers to extract benefits.
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Nuclear Fusion Efforts Accelerate with New Investments
The race to achieve viable nuclear fusion energy has accelerated with major new investments and collaboration. This month Japan opened the world's largest experimental fusion reactor, the JT-60SA tokamak, to advance research towards the larger ITER reactor under construction in France. Meanwhile, fusion experiments at the United States National Ignition Facility encourage greater private sector funding. The US also announced intentions to coordinate an international nuclear fusion strategy at COP28.
If harnessed at scale, nuclear fusion could provide abundant clean energy. But despite longstanding efforts, technical barriers have been difficult to overcome. With new investment and international coordination, there is optimism around recent promising experiments achieving fusion fuel gain. But projects remain over budget and achieving commercial viability could still take decades. Still, fusion has immense potential due to inexpensive, accessible fuels and far less radioactive waste than fission reactors. The latest breakthroughs and policy moves are a part of efforts to harness safe, ultra-efficient energy could eventually help satisfy rising electricity demand.