In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, December 6th
Europe’s Concerns and Potential Response to the Inflation Reduction Act, Ukraine Demonstrates Ability to Strike Deep Inside Russian Territory, and other stories.
Japan’s Ruling Coalition Approves Pre-emptive Strike Capability
Japan’s ruling coalition has approved a process which will allow the Japanese government to strike enemy bases that are preparing an attack. This change is expected to be reflected in three upcoming defence documents: the National Security Strategy, the National Defense Program Guidelines, and the Mid-Term Defense Program.
In tandem with the decision, Japanese defence officials are reportedly also considering a major arms build up by developing at least 10 types of missiles. These missiles are an a mix of hypersonic missiles and glide vehicles launched from land, sea, and air. While the development of these new technologies take time to develop, Japan is said to be interested in buying up to 500 US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles.
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Europe’s Concerns and Potential Response to the Inflation Reduction Act
The soon-to-be-implemented Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) promises to provide subsidies and financial assistance exclusively for US companies, which the European Union sees as discriminatory. The US Inflation Reduction Act may force the European Union to increase subsidies of its own in certain sectors.
The European Union sees the IRA's tax credits and subsidies as discriminatory toward EU industry and as an existential threat to European manufacturing. In response to the IRA, Brussels may introduce controversial requirements to privilege European over foreign production. Subsidies may help the EU avoid an exodus of investment in key industries and maintain competitiveness. However, it may come at the cost of alienating trade partners and distorting competition in the bloc's single market.
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Ukraine Demonstrates Ability to Strike Deep Inside Russian Territory
Russia has said it has been hit hundreds of kilometres inland from its border with Ukraine, the targeted location was home to Russia's strategic bomber fleet. Drones struck inside Russia, exposing the vulnerability of some of Moscow’s most important military sites.
There is speculation Kiev has developed some kind of strike drone with a speculated range of up to 1,000km range. If accurate, this would deteriorate Moscow’s asymmetric advantage and allow Ukraine to respond to cruise missile strikes launched from deep inside Russia itself. Ukrainian officials continue to deny its forces have carried out drone strikes inside Russia and remain ambiguous over their role in any high-profile attacks in Russia.
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US Approaches to Managing China’s Rise and Russia’s Decline
As Russia turns increasingly toward China to stave-off economic collapse and diplomatic isolation, there are many pathways for Beijing to exploit Russian resources in ways that that disadvantage long-term American power interests.
Geopolitics today is characterized by multipolar great-power competition in which China, Russia and the United States are rivals for global influence. Relative to the other two powers, Russia has been in decline for decades, thereby enjoying a weaker position relative to China and the United States. Should China capitalize on its economic advantages in the Far East with a weakened and isolated Moscow, Russia’s power loss from the war in Ukraine could favour China in the long-term.
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Turkey Requests Finland Resumes Defence Sales in NATO Talks
The Turkish foreign minister has said that Finland must declare that it will lift an arms embargo on Turkey if Helsinki wishes to win Ankara’s approval for its membership to NATO.
Finland has yet to lift arms embargoes against Turkey, a pledge that both Stockholm and Helsinki made under a deal that would lead to their accession to NATO. Dropping their historical military non-alignment policies, both Sweden and Finland applied to join NATO in the face of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Ankara has asked both Nordic countries to address its concerns in return for ratifying their accession to the alliance.