In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, December 3rd
China Retaliates by Banning Mineral Exports to the US, South Korea's President Retreats from Martial Law, and other stories.
China Retaliates by Banning Mineral Exports to the US
China has banned exports of key minerals to the United States, retaliating against new US semiconductor restrictions targeting China's artificial intelligence development. Beijing immediately halted shipments of gallium, germanium, antimony and other materials crucial for chip manufacturing and military applications. China dominates global supply of these minerals, producing 98 per cent of gallium and 60 per cent of germanium.
This marks a shift in Beijing's approach to US technology restrictions. Rather than showing restraint to slow decoupling, China is now willing to leverage its control of critical materials to impose serious costs on Washington. Four major Chinese trade associations also urged members to reduce US chip purchases, calling US components “no longer safe or reliable.” The immediate impact remains unclear as the US has been diversifying supply chains, but China could expand export controls to other products. The tit-for-tat measures highlight the growing technology rivalry between the world's two largest economies.
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France and Italy Compete for Central Asian Energy and Arms Markets
France and Italy are expanding their influence in Central Asia, driven by distinct energy priorities. France's state-backed Orano dominates uranium production in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, critical for its nuclear power sector — especially after losing Niger as a supplier. Meanwhile, Italy's ENI has secured major stakes in Kazakh oil and gas fields, handling 27.9 per cent of Kazakhstan's oil exports and pledging $1.5 billion in new investments in January 2024.
The two European powers are also competing for defence contracts as Russia's arms exports decline. France has delivered radar systems and transport aircraft to Kazakhstan, though it lost a fighter jet deal to Russia in August 2024. Italy has found success in Turkmenistan, supplying helicopters, naval weapons, and transport aircraft. However, both nations face stiff competition from China, Russia, and Turkey in a region where Central Asian states deliberately balance multiple partners to maintain independence.
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Pakistan's Military Budget Starves Social Services
Pakistan allocated 17.5 per cent of its 2023-24 budget (1.8 trillion rupees) to defence, while critical social services languish. This severe imbalance stems from entrenched security priorities dating to independence, particularly regarding India. The consequences are stark: GDP growth has stalled at 2-3 per cent, foreign investment plunged to $1.45 billion in 2023, and over 35 per cent of Pakistanis live in poverty. The country now ranks 161st globally in human development, behind most of its South Asian neighbours.
The military spending pattern reveals deeper structural issues in Pakistan's governance model. While regional security concerns are real, the outsized defence budget has become self-defeating — by starving education, healthcare, and infrastructure of resources, it undermines the economic foundation needed for sustainable security. Pakistan faces mounting pressure to reform as its debt-to-GDP ratio tops 80 per cent amid recurring IMF bailouts. Yet meaningful change would require confronting powerful military interests that have shaped national priorities for decades. The “guns vs butter” dilemma has become an existential challenge for Pakistan's development path.
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Senegal Orders French Military to Leave
Senegalese President Bassirou Diomaye Faye called for the closure of French military bases in Senegal on November 30, declaring foreign military presence “incompatible” with national sovereignty. The announcement came days before the 80th anniversary commemoration of the 1944 Thiaroye massacre, where French forces killed unarmed West African soldiers who had fought for France in World War II.
This marks another setback for French military influence in West Africa, as Chad also announced the termination of its defence agreement with France, affecting roughly 1,000 French troops. Faye, elected in March on a platform of greater sovereignty, has balanced his call for military withdrawal with assurances about maintaining economic and cultural partnerships with France. The moves reflect a broader regional shift away from post-colonial security arrangements while preserving other aspects of bilateral relationships.
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US Sanctions Iran's Oil Fleet
The United States has announced fresh sanctions against Iran's maritime oil trade, targeting 35 vessels and entities in what Washington claims is a “shadow fleet” evading international restrictions. The measures, which block US-based assets and transactions, represent the latest attempt to constrain Iranian oil revenues.
Tehran dismissed the sanctions as ineffective, warning any “energy war” would remove 12 million barrels — 10% of global supply — from markets already strained by production cuts. Iran continues to find buyers for its oil despite a decade of US pressure, adapting shipping practices and documentation to circumvent restrictions. The announcement comes as Washington struggles to maintain international support for its Iran policy, with China and India continuing to import Iranian oil while its European allies seek diplomatic engagement. The resilience of Iran's oil exports despite mounting US sanctions raises questions about the strategy's effectiveness in altering Tehran's regional policies.
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South Korea's President Retreats from Martial Law
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has lifted martial law after just six hours, following parliament's decisive rejection of military rule. The dramatic reversal came after troops and military vehicles surrounded parliament, where 190 lawmakers voted unanimously to overturn the decree. The brief crisis, which began when Yoon declared martial law citing “anti-state forces,” saw protesters confronting soldiers outside the National Assembly and at least one attempt to disarm a military officer.
The incident marks South Korea's first martial law declaration since democratization in 1987 and has severely weakened Yoon's position. With impeachment now likely, his attempt to break the opposition-controlled parliament's resistance appears to have backfired spectacularly. The swift resolution — with troops withdrawing immediately after parliament's vote — demonstrates the military's ultimate deference to civilian authority. However, the episode has prompted “serious concern” in the United States, which was reportedly not notified in advance despite the presence of 27,000 US troops in South Korea.