In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, December 19th
Ukraine and the US Seek New Military Strategy for 2024, Germany Secures $55 Billion Gas Deal with Norway, and other stories.
US, Japan, South Korea Share Real-Time Intelligence
The United States, Japan and South Korea have activated a real-time missile warning system to share data on North Korean launches. The trilateral mechanism will provide faster alerts on trajectory, launch sites and impact points of North Korean missiles. This intelligence sharing aims to improve joint responses to the threats posed by Pyongyang's advancing nuclear and missile programs.
The agreement comes after years of strained relations between Japan and South Korea had hindered defence cooperation with the US. But the administration of new South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has prioritized mending ties with Japan. With all three allies now institutionally committed to mitigating this common threat, their unified deterrence carries renewed weight. However, North Korea has denounced the coordinating mechanism as a measure that will undermine regional security on behalf of the US.
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Ukraine and the US Seek New Military Strategy for 2024
Facing battlefield setbacks and eroding support, Ukraine is seeking a revised military strategy for 2024 with the United States, aimed at regaining momentum. Ukraine wants to remain on offence with bold attacks, while US officials advocate a more conservative approach focused on preserving gains, stockpiling arms, and gradually improving Ukraine's self-sufficiency.
Bipartisan support in Congress for continuing large-scale assistance to Ukraine is steadily declining. Meanwhile, Russia works to replenish its stocks of weapons and munitions. With neither side able to gain decisive advantage on the battlefield in, a prolonged deadlock is expected in 2024. Eventual peace negotiations remain a possibility, but the outlook depends heavily on whether Western military aid continues to effectively stall further Russian advances. If key US and European subsidies are reduced, Ukrainian forces could struggle to keep holding their existing positions.
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Erdoğan Links Sweden's NATO Bid to Conditions
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has directly linked approval of Sweden's NATO membership bid in Turkey's parliament to the United States and other allies meeting key demands. Erdoğan said ratification of Sweden's accession hinges on the US Congress simultaneously approving Turkey's longstanding request to purchase F-16 fighter jets. He also demanded that Canada and other NATO members lift arms embargoes against Turkey.
Erdoğan appears set on using the NATO applications as leverage to achieve normalization with Western powers amid ongoing tensions. While unlikely to singularly determine Sweden's bid, Erdoğan's demands signal his intent to extract maximal gains for Turkey. Scepticism remains in the US Congress around providing advanced jets to Turkey, given concerns about their potential use against US allies. But Sweden and Finland's addition to NATO retains significant strategic importance for Washington. This could see Erdoğan achieve wins on key issues like the F-16 sale, even as he draws out the approval process to extract more concessions.
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Germany Secures $55 Billion Gas Deal with Norway
Germany has secured a massive 50 billion euro natural gas supply deal with Norway's Equinor to help replace imports from Russia and avoid energy shortages. The 10-year agreement will provide state-owned German energy firm Sefe with around 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually, meeting one-third of the country's industrial demand. Deliveries start in 2024.
The deal cements Norway's position as Germany's biggest gas supplier amid efforts to end its decades-long reliance on Russia. It also includes tentative plans for Equinor to supply Sefe with large volumes of low-carbon hydrogen from 2029 onwards to support Germany's broader energy transition away from fossil fuels. With winter gas needs to be secured and alternatives progressing, Germany appears on track to overcome the crisis triggered by the loss of sanctioned Russian energy flows.
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India Tests Indigenous High-Speed Stealth Drone
India recently achieved a major milestone in its drone technology development program with the successful test flight of an indigenous high-speed stealth drone. The unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) is an autonomous flying wing platform designed to demonstrate advanced aerodynamic capabilities and stealth technologies. It flew several test flights showing fully autonomous take-off and landing aided by India's satellite navigation system.
This stealth drone is likely a prototype variant of India's Ghatak combat UAV project. It highlights India's push for greater self-reliance in defence technologies amid intensifying drone use along disputed borders with Pakistan and China. Both rivals actively deploy drones for surveillance, logistics, and even attack missions in these contested Himalayan regions. India is now matching those capabilities while optimizing drones for high-altitude mountain warfare. With applications for counterterrorism and strengthening coastal security as well, India's UAVs may soon be an integral part of the country's military strategy.
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South China Sea Tensions Persist Between US, China, Philippines
A recent spate of incidents in the South China Sea points to rising risks between the United States, China, and the Philippines. In early December, China accused a US warship of infringing on its territorial waters off the Spratly Islands, where the Philippines also maintains a military outpost. This follows China allegedly using lasers to blind Philippine sailors in February, ramming Philippine coast guard vessels in October, and “swarming” Philippine-claimed reefs with over 135 fishing boats in December.
In response, the United States and Philippines have stepped up joint military operations and patrols aimed at deterring China. However, both sides are so far avoiding open conflict. While these provocations increase the chances of an accidental clash or crisis, they are unlikely to spill over into wider armed confrontation in the short-term. The strategic goals of the US and its allies remain focused on keeping vital regional sea lanes under control and protecting allies like Taiwan and the Philippines. But the risk of escalation from an uncontrolled incident persist into 2024.