In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, December 13th
The EU Agrees to Grant Bosnia Membership Candidate Status, The United States Hosts African Leaders, and other stories.
The EU Agrees to Grant Bosnia Membership Candidate Status
The European Union general affairs ministers have agreed to bestow accession candidate status to Bosnia & Herzegovina. The decision still has to be endorsed by EU leaders on December 15.
Ministers from 27 member states gave the green light to Bosnia’s membership after the European Commission in October recommended they launch the membership process. The EU has become increasingly concerned that Russia and China are growing their influence in the Balkans, and hopes to limit Bosnia’s cooperation with these powers via the numerous incentives the EU can provide.
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Japan-Taiwan-US Priorities in Deterring China
China’s investments in military modernization have narrowed the capability gap between the US and China. This military modernization has also greatly increased its nuclear capabilities. This growth in conventional and nuclear power has allowed Beijing more freedom to apply pressure on Taiwan.
As Washington and its allies in the Western Pacific look to push back China, a trilateral strategy between the United States, Japan and Taiwan is in constant development. Together, the three countries will require improved domestic political resilience, greater deterrence capabilities, a more nuanced approach to managing China’s growing nuclear capabilities and greater defence readiness.
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Russia’s Northern Sea Route Turns East
As Europe pushes to reduce dependence on Russian oil and gas, China and India are making the most of new, discounted supplies of increasingly shunned Russian hydrocarbons. This change of energy relations is impacting the Northern Sea Route, the Arctic waterways that Russia is looking to develop into an international shipping route.
Sanctions and embargoes are causing more ships to traverse Russia’s Northern Sea Route above the Arctic Circle. Ice-strengthened oil tankers belonging to Russia have changed their routes from Europe to Asia, making the 5,310-kilometer journey and calling at the the port of Rizhao, China. Unconventional voyages such as these are likely to increase as European markets shun Russian crude and the planet continues to lower transport costs when shipping via Russia’s Northern Sea Route.
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The United States Hosts African Leaders
The United States is hosting a three-day summit with African leaders in Washington that focuses on cooperation in the climate crisis, governance, food security, health, and US-Africa trade. US officials are also said to be preparing a memorandum of understanding with countries of the African Continental Free Trade Area.
In a bid to gain the support of African leaders present at the summit, US officials have insisted the summit went beyond Washington’s present focus on the war in Ukraine and China’ influence in Africa. Over 300 US and African businesses are set to meet with US government delegations to discuss investments in critical sectors, with the US insisting “conditionality” to support its position on Ukraine will not be required.
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China Expands the use of Yuan in Global Trade
Chinese President Xi Jinping has pledged to increase regional development aid and ramped up efforts to promote the Chinese yuan as the currency of choice in energy and other key markets.
Although China imports more discounted Russian crude, it still buys large volumes of the oil from Saudi Arabia, all these transactions are typically made in the Yuan. While the Yuan has made inroads in global trade, the currency still only accounts for just 2.7% of global trade. To boost the Yuan’s share of global sales, China has also chosen to open select commodity markets. Beijing already internationalised iron ore contracts in 2018 and added a host of non-ferrous metals.