In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, February 6th
ICJ Gaza Ruling Places Legal Risk on States Supporting Israel, Colombia Extends Ceasefire Agreement with Rebel Group, and other stories.
ICJ Gaza Ruling Places Legal Risk on States Supporting Israel
The recent International Court of Justice order on the case South Africa v Israel established a “real and imminent risk” of irreparable harm to rights protected under the Genocide Convention in Gaza. This triggers heightened responsibilities for third party states supporting Israel's military operations.
Specifically, the plausibility finding regarding genocide risks intensifies the duty on all treaty signatories to prevent genocide. This requires concrete assessments about how provided weaponry and aid are employed, rather than blanket acceptance of Israeli assurances. The order also raises the prospect that ongoing assistance without sufficient safeguards could incur legal liability for complicity in genocide. The provision of parts for fighter jets bombing Gaza is one salient example, as a current court case on F-35 deliveries from the Netherlands illustrates. The ICJ ruling creates a heightened onus on states to cease assistance that exacerbates severe suffering. In theory, the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities applies. Yet in practice, states actively enabling violations fail this test.
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West Pursues Ad-Hoc Russia Tribunal
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) largely dismissed a lawsuit brought by Ukraine against Russia in 2017. Ukraine had accused Russia of financing separatists in eastern Ukraine and oppressing minorities in Crimea, violating UN conventions. But the ICJ agreed with only a few minor Ukrainian claims regarding promotion of the Ukrainian language in Crimean schools and Russia's escalation of the conflict after February 2022.
The ruling goes against Western interests, as the ICJ declined to endorse most Ukrainian allegations against Russia. It comes after the court recently ordered provisional measures against Israel's actions in Gaza. In response, Western countries are working to establish a separate, ad-hoc tribunal specifically aimed at prosecuting Russia's leaders. This would bypass existing international courts to ensure convictions. However, Global South nations may see this as undermining the principle of equality under international law and set worrisome precedents. The West seems willing to discard universal standards before international courts to achieve convictions of geopolitical rivals. This could prompt other states to establish their own tribunals without UN legitimacy, further eroding the post-WW2 international order.
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China Upgrades Ties with Uzbekistan
Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev recently visited China, meeting with President Xi Jinping and other top officials in Beijing and Shenzhen. This state visit resulted in the two countries upgrading their bilateral relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This new designation signals China’s growing ambitions in Central Asia, as Pakistan is the only other regional country conferred this privileged status.
The visit produced numerous business deals and announcements of expanded cooperation. Total two-way trade reached $14 billion in 2023, a fivefold increase over recent years, with the goal of hitting $20 billion soon. New Chinese projects span sectors like energy, mining, manufacturing, agriculture and infrastructure. Perhaps most symbolically, China called for accelerating progress on long-stalled proposals for building the China-Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan railway. This would strengthen overland trade connectivity between China and Europe, advancing Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative.
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Colombia Extends Ceasefire Agreement with Rebel Group
Colombia has extended a 6-month ceasefire agreement with the rebel group National Liberation Army (ELN) that was set to expire. This brings hope for progress toward ending decades of internal armed conflict after peace accords in 2016 disbanded the larger FARC Marxist group. The extension came after last-minute delays in talks between government and ELN representatives in Havana, Cuba. Further rounds of negotiations will rotate between Venezuela, Mexico, and Cuba.
The ELN pledged to unilaterally suspend economic kidnappings that have continued funding its insurgency. This addresses a sore point that nearly derailed talks last year. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro has prioritized a “total peace” policy involving outreach across armed factions to curb violence. But the complex process faces steep hurdles like expanding ELN territorial control in former FARC areas. So while the ceasefire extension reflect incremental progress, major uncertainties remain around consolidating trust and permanent demobilization of fighters.
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Poland Reaffirms Ukraine Backing
The new Polish government has worked to improve ties with Ukraine, with Prime Minister Donald Tusk recently reaffirming Poland's commitment to Ukraine's security. This comes after a brief downturn in Polish-Ukrainian relations late last year over disputes on agricultural trade and trucking regulations. However, the two countries appear to have resolved these tensions, announcing new border control cooperation and plans to expand border crossings.
Poland has been one of Ukraine's strongest supporters, advocating for Ukraine's NATO membership and assisting with military aid and training. Tusk stated that Poland's security is intertwined with Ukraine's, a long-held Polish position. His government now seeks to leverage Poland's influence within the EU to continue backing Ukraine's NATO accession. This includes joining the G7 Security Guarantees for sustained Ukrainian defence assistance. Ultimately, Warsaw calculates that Ukraine's NATO membership, alongside Polish military modernization, is key to deterring Russian aggression in the region.
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South Korea Secures $3.2 Billion Saudi Missile Defence Deal
South Korea's LIG Nex1 has secured a massive $3.2 billion air defence system contract with Saudi Arabia. The deal underscores both South Korea’s rising capacity as an arms manufacturer and Saudi Arabia’s diversification of defence relationships. The Cheongung II system will provide an additional layer of protection amidst regional aerial threats for Saudi Arabia. It may also be easier for Riyadh to resupply compared to US-provided Patriot missiles.
South Korea likely aims to leverage this Saudi contract as a springboard for further weapons sales with Gulf Arab states. As these countries seek to balance defence ties, Seoul can offer itself as an alternative supplier less susceptible to US supply chains. Broader implications extend to relationships with rivals. Expanding defence exports boosts South Korea’s strategic influence and relationships with states like Saudi Arabia that have more strained ties with Japan and China. It also furnishes capital for South Korea’s military modernization and self-sufficiency efforts at home.