In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, February 7th
Continued German Presence in Mali Under Debate, China’s Tech Sector Under Pressure from the US and its Allies, and other stories.
Netherlands, Germany & Denmark Buying Leopard Tanks for Ukraine
The Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark are purchasing 100 Leopard 1-A5 battle tanks for Ukraine and will provide ammunition, spare parts, and training for Ukrainian tank crews. The tanks will be purchased from German suppliers and the amount of money involved has not been disclosed.
The Leopard 1-A5 tank is an older model, which entered the market in the late 1980s. The Netherlands has no tanks of its own, but is considering buying them outright and transferring them to Ukraine. The delivery is separate from the delivery of Leopard 2-A6 tanks to Ukraine. This is not the first time the Netherlands has sent tanks to Ukraine, as they have already donated over a billion euros worth of military equipment to Kyiv. There have been warnings about a possible intensified Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine.
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The EU and the US Preparing Defence Cooperation Agreement
The European Council has approved a draft agreement with the US Defense Department to facilitate defence cooperation that excludes joint capability development. The European Defence Agency will play a key role in this cooperation, imposing EU regulatory policies on any work product with non-EU countries.
The agreement aims to enable a substantial defence dialogue on topics such as military mobility and supply chain problems. The draft excludes any work involving research and technology due to potential conflicting rules with US export controls. This new arrangement may limit US participation in the collection of 60 EU defence projects under PESCO, as administrative arrangements with non-EU countries are a prerequisite for participation and PESCO rules already exclude EU funding from non-bloc participants.
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Continued German Presence in Mali Under Debate
The Bundeswehr's Mali mission has faced controversy over the reconnaissance drone flights that it has been conducting or plans to conduct in the north of the country. The military government in Bamako has taken action against unauthorized air operations by foreign armed forces within Mali’s airspace and has also challenged German operations.
Bamako has been insisting on obtaining unimpeded access to images and data gathered by foreign drones, and since October, the government has been refusing authorization for the Bundeswehr to continue its flights. This has hindered the UN's MINUSMA operation and the Bundeswehr's own operations. The Bundeswehr's continued presence in Mali is now up for debate due to a lack of drone flights, with Germany’s Defence Minister Boris Pistorius declaring that a continued Bundeswehr presence “makes no sense” under current conditions.
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Challenges Ahead for Iran’s Energy Ambitions
Iran was optimistic as winter approached and expected to benefit from its vast natural gas reserves. However, increased electricity use led to power grid failures, and shortages of natural gas caused protests and closures of schools and public facilities.
Iran, with the second largest natural gas reserves in the world, has been a net importer of natural gas since 2011 and still struggles to use its reserves efficiently due to high domestic consumption, mismanagement, sanctions, a lack of financial resources, and technology. Iran has invested only $3 billion annually in its oil and gas sector, which has resulted in declining domestic production, aging infrastructure, and lack of foreign investment and technology.
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China’s Tech Sector Under Pressure from the US and its Allies
The United States has reached a deal with Japan and the Netherlands to restrict exports of advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China, including equipment made by the Dutch firm ASML and Japanese firm Nikon. The Biden administration is also considering cutting off Huawei from all US exports and technology, and has stopped approving licenses for exports to the company.
The move to restrict China's access to advanced chipmaking gear and its continued crackdown on Huawei indicates Washington's intent to wage a multi-pronged assault against China's tech sector with the help of its allies. The lack of public information on the deal with Japan and the Netherlands suggests the finer details have not been finalized and may need to be negotiated in the future. The new restrictions may fragment the global semiconductor supply chain and prolong the impact of existing US restrictions on China's tech sector.