In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, February 27th
Macron's Remarks on Troops in Ukraine Rebuked by Allies, Report Reveals Decade-Long CIA-MI6 Intel Partnership with Ukraine, and other stories.
Macron's Remarks on Troops in Ukraine Rebuked by Allies
French President Emmanuel Macron sparked controversy by refusing to rule out Western troops deploying to Ukraine if needed, despite no consensus among European allies on further military escalation. While Macron said no decision was made, his comments aimed to signal maximum support for Ukraine's security demands. However, his statement drew swift pushback from the United States and major European powers. Meanwhile,
Macron's remarks risk exacerbating tensions with key partners like Germany. While some NATO allies have proposed ambiguous signalling to keep Moscow guessing, the disjointed reactions underscored the lack of consensus on redefining NATO involvement. More significantly, France agreed to tap non-EU arms manufacturers and co-finance a Czech-led purchasing initiative worth $1.5 billion, representing a concrete boost for Ukraine's depleted munitions stocks. Yet urgent arms supplies alone will not turn the tide without NATO implementing a coordinated long-term strategy that sustains Ukraine's defence capacity.
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Indonesia and Papua New Guinea Ratify Security Pact
Indonesia and Papua New Guinea have ratified a long-delayed security cooperation agreement focused on stabilizing their shared border on the island of New Guinea. The deal enables joint border patrols aimed at improving security and reducing the presence of Indigenous Papuan insurgents who have fought Indonesian rule for decades. Papua New Guinea's foreign minister said the pact will upgrade his country's capacity to control the remote frontier while respecting Indonesia's sovereignty over Western New Guinea.
The agreement signals Papua New Guinea will not interfere with Indonesian military efforts targeting separatists across the border. This allows Indonesia to consolidate control of restive Papuan regions, as incoming President Prabowo Subianto promises a more forceful foreign policy. For both rising regional powers, the deal underscores a desire to modernize defences through bilateral partnerships at a time when they have also expanded ties with Australia, China, and the United States. However, joint operations to secure tribal borderlands risk further militarizing the divide between Papuans split by colonial borders.
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China’s Police Deal with PNG Threatens US and Australian Inroads
China appears to be making significant inroads in Papua New Guinea (PNG), with reports that the two countries are negotiating an agreement to allow Chinese police training and surveillance support for PNG's police force. This comes despite recent security agreements PNG signed with the United States and Australia, who are working to cement themselves as exclusive partners to PNG.
If finalized, such a China-PNG police cooperation deal would signal a major setback for US and Australian influence. China is outmanoeuvring rivals in the Pacific through its commercial presence, proxy groups, and active diplomacy to lay the groundwork for expanded power. While the US and Australia have focused narrowly on security pacts and infrastructure, their lack of political engagement has left an opening for China’s multifaceted influence campaign. This creeping leverage risks undermining Washington's wider Indo-Pacific strategy. Unless the US and Australia implement a coordinated whole-of-government response, Chinese inroads in PNG and elsewhere could continue unimpeded.
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US to Back Guyana at the UN in Essequibo Border Dispute
The US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield visited Guyana this week and reiterated US support for Guyana's territorial claims in its border dispute with Venezuela over the Essequibo region. She denied any US plans to establish a military base in Guyana. Thomas-Greenfield positioned growing US engagement with Guyana in terms of its new role on the UN Security Council, suggesting the US aims to align with Guyana there.
Thomas-Greenfield’s uncompromising stance backing Guyana’s claim risks further escalating tensions with Venezuela. With Guyana now chairing the Security Council as Caracas aggressively disputes Essequibo sovereignty, closer US-Guyana cooperation could enable coordinated diplomatic isolation of Venezuela. However, this pressure strategy has failed to deter Venezuelan sovereignty claims historically. Unless the US explores impartial mediation, deepening involvement in this complex territorial dispute may undermine regional stability. Moreover, perceived threats to Venezuelan security could push Caracas further toward Russian/Chinese military partnerships.
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Report Reveals Decade-Long CIA-MI6 Intel Partnership with Ukraine
A new report reveals that Ukraine has maintained a covert intelligence partnership with the CIA and the UK's MI6 for over a decade to conduct joint operations against Russia. The cooperation began in 2014 after Ukraine's pro-Western Maidan revolution and has expanded to include CIA training of Ukrainian special forces, establishment of CIA bases in Ukraine to coordinate activities, and assisting Ukrainian efforts to recruit Russian assets.
The exposé reveals the extent to which Ukraine has been incorporated into the West's intelligence apparatus with the intent to counter Russia. This degree of security partnership reinforces Moscow's narrative of losing influence over a vital neighbour, with Ukraine showing agency in pursuing its own aggressive agenda. As the conflict continues, maintenance of the CIA tie depends on continued US support. If lethal aid to Ukraine is cut amid shifting politics, it could hamper Ukraine’s ability to leverage the human intelligence cultivated by the CIA and MI6 against Russian forces.
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China Studies Russian Helicopter Tactics for Taiwan Insights
As part of China's extensive efforts to draw lessons from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, People's Liberation Army (PLA) strategists are closely analysing the combat performance of Russia's Ka-52 “Alligator” attack helicopters. A recent PLA assessment examines how, after struggling with heavy losses earlier in the war, the Ka-52 has adapted new tactics and enjoyed greater success in destroying Ukrainian armoured vehicles in 2023.
Chinese military analysis specifically credits more concealed hit-and-run strikes enabled by precise long-range sensors and munitions, effective use of terrain masking, and improved electronic warfare defences. It also highlights the Ka-52's vital night operation capabilities that could be relevant for a Taiwan scenario. Despite early setbacks, Chinese assessments argue the gunship has rebounded as a very capable system used best in destroying tanks and armoured vehicles. Chinese military theorists are studying its evolving weapons and tactics for insights on amphibious assault operations as well.