In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, February 28th
The Risks of US Plans to Increase Military Presence in Taiwan, Economic Concerns Constrain Chinese Military Aid to Russia, and other stories.
The Risks of US Plans to Increase Military Presence in Taiwan
An increase in the US military presence in Taiwan is reportedly being planned, from almost 40 to between 100 and 200 military personnel. The additional troops will arrive in the coming months, and 500 Taiwanese troops will be sent to the United States for combat training.
Although the total numbers involved are still small, these moves represent significant increases in cooperation between the two governments, potentially leading to larger deployments in the future. The Biden administration's overt signals of support for Taiwan have caused the Taiwanese government to clarify that US troops are not permanently stationed there. These actions risk further damaging the relationship with China and hamstringing the US's ability to advance its interests on a wide range of issues. US-Chinese relations are as bad as they have been since at least the early 1990s, and they are arguably worse than at any time since the two governments normalized relations in 1979.
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US Faces Heightened Nuclear Deterrence Challenge with Russia
The functioning of deterrence, particularly nuclear deterrence, is vital for US military planning at all levels, according to Admiral Charles Richard, the then Commander of Strategic Command. Recent developments in the war in Ukraine show that the deterrence challenge facing the US now exceeds that of the Cold War era.
Russia has used coercive nuclear first-use threats, constraining US response options. Moscow's exploitation of these threats, as well as its regional goals and alliance with China, may require a rethinking of fundamental issues, including the character of the international order, the requirements for deterrence, and the future of arms control.
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Oman's Abraj Energy Forms Strategic Partnership in Kuwait
Oman's Abraj Energy Services has signed a five-year strategic partnership with Saudi Arabian Chevron and Kuwait Gulf Oil Company to work together on drilling and oil extraction, specifically building three drilling platforms in the Wafra oil field in southern Kuwait.
This news is the second major energy news to come out of Oman this year after Abraj announced in January that it would list a 49% stake of the company via an initial public offering. The stock will be available on the Muscat Stock Exchange starting in March. Oman began introducing economic reforms in 2020 to reduce its large debt, including diversification plans.
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US Arms Industry to Profit from Leopard 2 Deliveries to Ukraine
Some reports suggest that the United States is delaying the delivery of M1 Abrams battle tanks to Ukraine in order to attack Germany's Leopard 2's strong standing in the European arms markets.
The United States is offering to replace the Leopard 2 battle tanks that European countries deliver to Kiev with M1 Abrams, as long as the recipients engage in a "long-term industrial partnership." This could lead to Berlin losing potential customers for German battle tanks, resulting in a loss of political influence. Poland has already purchased US battle tanks and is also buying battle tanks from South Korea, which serves US interests in Eastern Asia and weakens Berlin. The US arms industry is expected to be the main profiteer from the Leopard 2 deliveries to Kiev, while German tank producers are increasingly threatened by US and South Korean competition.
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Economic Concerns Constrain Chinese Military Aid to Russia
Chinese military aid to Russia has been the subject of much discussion, with the United States warning against it. However, it is unlikely that China will provide significant aid due to economic and practical concerns, as well as the potential for a military response from the US.
Despite entering into a treaty with Russia, China recoiled from the alliance once the war in Ukraine broke out, abstaining from a UN vote to condemn Russia. China's economy relies heavily on exports and foreign investment, and involvement in Ukraine would likely incur sanctions from both the U.S. and Europe, which have much to lose. Additionally, the distance between China's industrial base and the Ukrainian battlefield is substantial, making the transportation and protection of equipment and personnel a daunting task. Instead, Beijing could send small amounts of equipment.