In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, February 22nd
In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, February 22nd
Russia Escalates as Troops Reinforce Eastern Rebels, The UAE’s Growing Interest in Unmanned Systems, Saudi Arabia Restarts Oil Refinery Talks with China
Russia Escalates as Troops Reinforce Rebels in Ukraine
In a lengthy address to the people of Russia delivered by President Vladimir Putin, the President questioned the circumstances surrounding the foundations, existence and continued preservation of Ukraine’s sovereignty. In the same speech, Putin chose to signal an escalation in the crisis, opening the door for a direct Russian military intervention via the two Russian-backed seperatist regions in Eastern Ukraine. Putin has requested that the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation support his decision to “immediately recognize” the “independence and sovereignty” of the Donest People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Repiblic.
In response, Ukranian President Zelensky has called up the country’s reservists. US Presdent Biden has announced a small reshuffle of troops along NATO’s eastern flank, as well as a set of sanctions which will impose costs on Russia in response to their actions. The US will reportely be sending up to eight F-35 fighter jets to several operating locations, as well as AH-64 Apache attack helicopters and 800 soldiers to the Baltic region. The sanctions announced by Biden target two Russian financial institutions — development firm VEB and the bank Promsvyazbank —, and imposes “comprehensive sanctions on Russian sovereign debt.” Escalation in Ukraine will translate to volatility in the oil and natural gas markets, as Russia is a major player in both markets. While the price of oil continues to rise sharply, the relative value of Russian oil delivered into Europe has slumped over the past few weeks. The consequences of a ban on Russian energy could prove damaging to many importers in Europe and elsewhere.
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The UAE’s Growing Interest in Unmanned Systems
The use of drones and other unmanned weapons is becoming increasingly common the world over. With the precision, destruction and low cost they offer, unnmaned systems are sure to revolutionize the battlefield. Aware of this future and with the funds at hand to build up its own domestic drone research, the UAE is quickly developing the infrastructure to employ highly-capable unmanned systems in both surveillance and lethal operations.
The UAE's major arms consortiums are often the best place to see some of the most sophisticated unmanned systems available on the market, with ths week's Unmanned Systems Exhibition showcasing remote-controlled machineguns and other "smart" weapons. One interesting system shown to potential buyers was a vehicle-mounted remote-controlled rifle that can swivel its turret 360 degrees. The unmanned system is also capable of remote thermal imaging and is equipped with a laser range finder. The UAE’s state-funded military acquisition program aims to grow the Emirati unmanned fleet in both number and technological sophistication over the next 10 years, eventually looking to compete on a global level with domestically-produced drones.
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Saudi Arabia Restarts Oil Refinery Talks with China
Saudi Arabia’s state-run oil giant Saudi Aramco has reportedly restarted talks with two Chinese consortiums over a joint project to build a refining and petrochemical complex in Northeast China. The original $10 billion deal between Saudi Aramco and China’s North Industries Group and Panjin Sincen Group — intended to build an integrated refining and petrochemical facility in Panjin city — fell through after low prices caused Aramco to pull out of the deal in August 2020. A resumtion of talks coincides with a rise in oil prices as Saudi Arabia’s oil giant looks to take advantage.
China and Saudi Arabia’s ties have strengthened as Beijing’s need for oil has grown along with its economy, with Saudi Arabia serving as the biggest supplier of crude oil to China last year. Aramco is looking to expand its global refining network in order to handle as much as 10 million barrels a day by 2030. The potential for closer ties between Riyadh and Beijing in the years ahead is a real possibility, particularly with deeper Sino-Saudi trade and investment cooperation in the petrochemical
sector. While an agreement is not yet imminent between the two on the refinery, the resmption of talks is an interesting sign that indicates an opportunity for cooperation between two countries which already have close ties in the petrochemical sector.
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