In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, February 13th
South Africa Deploys Troops to Eastern Congo, US Seizes Venezuelan Jet, and other stories.
South Africa Deploys Troops to Eastern Congo
South Africa has deployed 2,900 troops to the volatile eastern Congo region as part of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) peacekeeping force supporting government efforts against the M23 rebel insurgency. President Cyril Ramaphosa ordered the year-long mission honouring “international obligations,” but faces issues over capacity of South Africa's air assets.
The regional intervention follows repeated failures to stabilize mineral-rich North Kivu province, wracked by militia violence for decades. With South African forces now collaborating with Congolese troops and other militias, they risk fuelling rather than resolving conflict drivers. While the SADC coalition demonstrates some African solidarity in pushing the rebels back, it lacks the coherence and the resources required to address the underlying governance failures that enable chronic unrest in the Congo.
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Pakistan Elections Deepen Instability
Pakistan's national elections on February 8th produced an inconclusive result, with no party securing a parliamentary majority. However, on February 13th, major parties including the PML-N, PPP, and MQM announced they will form a coalition government, offering a path to reduce uncertainty. The PML-N's Shehbaz Sharif has been nominated as Prime Minister.
While the coalition formation offers a path forward, it remains fragmented across vision and priorities. Cobbled together mainly to obstruct Khan, whom the military deems threatening, the bloc must confront deep public frustration with the economy and governance failing ordinary citizens. Beyond power politics, Pakistan desperately needs relief from inflation, joblessness and wider prosperity gaps now weighing on its young populace. Any stable government requires addressing these basic needs, yet the coalition’s previous term instead focused on infighting and institutional interests. Unless it pursues a dramatically more progressive, representative policy agenda, unrest seems inevitable.
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Egypt-Turkey Diplomacy Seeks to Bridge Divide
Turkish President Erdoğan is set to visit Egypt this week, the first such high-level engagement since relations ruptured following Egypt's 2013 coup. This emerging détente comes amid wider regional realignments and shared imperatives to cooperate. Egypt and Turkey have seen ties improve through 2022-2023 diplomatic efforts, overcoming strained relations since the Arab Spring.
The visit signals cautious optimism for a revived partnership between these influential regional powers after a decade of mistrust. However, a meaningful reset faces hurdles like resolving disputes on Libya, Eastern Mediterranean access, and the Muslim Brotherhood's status. With global economic pressures also straining Egypt and Turkey domestically, leveraging potential bilateral trade and investment may further motivate compromise. Still, the degree of political will for reconciliation remains uncertain. The Gaza crisis has catalysed engagement, but fully bridging the rift requires patient, persistent diplomacy focused on mutual interests.
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US Seizes Venezuelan Jet
The United States has seized a Boeing 747 cargo plane from Iran that was sold to Venezuela's Emtrasur airline in 2022, spurring condemnation from both Tehran and Caracas. Washington alleges the deal, conducted via Iran's Mahan Air, violated US sanctions on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The jet has been grounded in Argentina at the behest of the US since July 2022.
The incident spotlights escalating tensions between the US and rivals Iran and Venezuela, who denounced the seizure as illegal. However, Washington maintains sanctioning the IRGC is a part of its counter-terrorism efforts. As Iran supports Venezuela economically to gain Latin American influence, the US aims to disrupt that relationship. But such aggressive unilateral actions also risk blowback if other states adjust their calculations due to Washington’s repeated disregard for international norms. The seized aeroplane could also invite renewed diplomatic clashes or even retaliatory moves.
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New Gas Corridor Seeks to Boost Europe's Energy Security
Countries across southeastern and Central Europe have launched plans for a “Vertical Corridor,” a new gas pipeline route enabling Azerbaijan to export more gas directly to European markets. The proposed capacity expansion across existing regional infrastructure aims to boost energy security, including for Ukraine and Moldova struggling with Russian supply disruptions.
The corridor taps growing cooperation between European states as they scramble to replace lost Russian exports. If realized, it would route valuable new Caspian gas sources through Ukraine's gas infrastructure network to Hungary, Slovakia and beyond. With Azerbaijan claiming massive production increases, the project highlights intensifying efforts by smaller states to leverage infrastructure and transit leverage for regional influence. However, uncertainties remain around boosting output fast enough to fill both this route and the Southern Gas Corridor. The viability of the vertical channel ultimately relies on brisk development of Azerbaijani fields and bringing additional partners like Turkmenistan on board.
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Nasdaq Signs Deal with Ukraine for Financial Exchange Partnership
The leading US financial exchange company Nasdaq signed a memorandum of understanding with Ukraine. The partnership, facilitated by the United States Agency for International Development, entails providing technical assistance for Ukraine's plans to create a new international finance centre. Additional areas of collaboration include promoting entrepreneurship, facilitating capital flows to Ukraine, and waiving Nasdaq listing fees for certain firms.
This agreement aims to present Ukraine as open for business, despite the ongoing war. However, increased economic dependence on outside interests can compromise Ukrainian sovereignty long-term. As state assets move toward privatization to pay state debts, Ukrainians may benefit less from their country's vast human, agricultural, and mineral resources. There are also social impacts to consider if pension obligations now rely more on foreign aid and investment returns than domestic tax revenue. Ukraine's goal of greater economic self-reliance during its recovery may prove more challenging if this greater engagement ushers in a new phase of reliance on corporate partnerships and outside capital.