In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, February 8th
US Pressure on Israel over China’s Investments Sees Some Success, China Continues to Protest US Arms Sales to Taiwan, Violence in Myanmar Threatens Volatile Ceasefire
US Pressure on Israel over China’s Investments Sees Some Success
US pressure to weaken China's access to Israeli technologies and infrastructure has increased in recent months. This pressure has now yielded some results as Israel has chosen to drop a major Chinese construction company from plans to build a light rail network. Israel’s new government is making certain changes to accomodate US interests in Israel, and that appears to have influenced the Israeli decision to drop China Railway Construction Corporation from the infrastructure project’s bidding process.
The issue of ties with China has come up at all recent meetings between Israeli and US officials, with discussions involving ways Israel can avoid conducting business with Chinese companies on infrastructure projects. One of the main concerns raised by US officials about the China Railway Construction Corporation is that Chinese infrastructure companies working on Israel’s mass transit lines would end up working in close proximity to the Israel Defense Forces headquarters and other defense facilities in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan area. Given this proximity, US officials have managed to get their concerns across to Israeli officials that the infrastructure company would be able to plant sensitive listening, tracking and recording devices.
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China Continues to Protest US Arms Sales to Taiwan
The United States has approved another arms sale to Taiwan, with the latest deal involving a $100 million support contract aimed at boosting the island’s missile defence systems. As the US State Department announced the engineering and maintenance agreement, China was sharply critical, and called on Washington to revoke the deal and stop all military interactions with Taiwan.
But China’s protests will fall on deaf ears in the United States, where officials are not only obliged to supply defensive arms to Taiwan, but also heavily incentivised by the political climate in the US to incrementally build up Taiwan’s capabilities as a means to deter China. The support agreement between Washington and Taipei is nothing new, and will function as a continuation of existing frameworks of military cooperation. This missile-defence package is meant to help Taiwan maintain its existing air defence missiles while more advanced US-made Patriot missiles are being prepared for a second shipment expected to arrive in Taipei next month. Further upgrades to the Patriot missile defence will help increase the costs of any military action by Beijing, and further deepen Taiwan’s dependency on Washington for its defence.
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Violence in Myanmar Threatens Volatile Ceasefire
A rebel group in Myanmar has said that government troops have attacked its fighters. In what would constitute a breach of a ceasefire, the Arakan Army (AA) group has accused the military of attempting to destabilise the only region still untouched by the fighting which has consumed the Southeast Asian country. The violent clashes that have reportedly taken place now threaten to undermine a ceasefire that is vital to the military government’s control of the country.
With help from the Japanese government, the AA and the Myanmar armed forces agreed to an informal ceasefire in November 2020. This ceasefire has largely held, with the Myanmar military reaffirming their commitment to the ceasefire with the Arakan Army (AA) following the coup which took place in 2021. The ceasefire has allowed the Myanmar military to redeploy key units elsewhere in an effort to quell the resistance to military rule present in other parts of the country. As such, reports of ceasefire violations here could lead to a breakdown of the informal agreement, and further push Myanmar into chaos and disorder. Moreover, given that the Myanmar military is already stretched thin, a reignited war between the military government and AA could directly influence the outcome of Myanmar’s nationwide conflict.
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