In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 16th
Iran Strikes Targets in Iraq and Syria, North Korea's Advanced Drones Spotlight Sanctions Evasion, and other stories.
Iran Strikes Targets in Iraq and Syria
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a series of ballistic missile strikes targeting sites in northern Iraq's Kurdistan region and northern Syria. The IRGC claimed it struck Israeli spy centres in Erbil, the capital of Iraqi Kurdistan, as well as bases in Syria. Iran stated the missile strikes were retaliation for recent attacks killing Iranian military commanders and were intended to deter further actions against Iranian interests. The assaults led to Iraq's government recalling its ambassador from Iran.
Iran appears to be sending a strong message that it will use decisive force to retaliate against perceived acts of aggression and deter future attacks on its personnel and proxies. However, launching ballistic missiles deep into the territory of neighbouring countries marks a breach of norms and risks triggering retaliatory actions or unintended escalation. Iraq and the Kurds, though maintaining ties with Iran, cannot ignore violation of their sovereignty. The strikes also widen existing divisions in the region, with Iran's partners celebrating the show of strength while US allies condemn the developments.
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US Expands its Claims on the Seabed
The United States has substantially expanded its sovereign claims over ocean seabeds, demarcating boundaries for over 1 million square kilometres of extended continental shelf across the Arctic, Pacific, and Atlantic. The unilateral move asserts US rights to potential future seabed mining and hydrocarbon extraction in resource-rich areas. But the claims overlap with those of Russia, Canada and other nations, risking disputes over development rights in rapidly opening Arctic regions.
The sweeping US power play signals growing great power competition over emerging frontier resources as climate change reshapes strategic calculus in the Arctic and other waters. Preserving access to seabed minerals is rising in the hierarchy of US national interests. However, the claims sidestep collective governance in favour of national expediency, further eroding global cooperation precedents. Much ambiguity persists on actual extractable deposits within the boundaries, but the optics suggest prioritizing future industry over environmental stewardship. Unless balanced by responsible diplomacy, America's resource nationalism may spur a reactive free-for-all scrambling to carve up international commons.
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Polish Truckers Suspend Blockades
Polish truckers have agreed to suspend protests blocking border crossings with Ukraine. The hauliers extracted commitments from Poland's government to address demands like financial aid and restricting Ukrainian competition. However, they warned blockades could resume in March if grievances remain unresolved.
The protests have obstructed trade, disadvantaged Ukrainian war efforts, and complicated ties. But the truckers seem unconvinced their interests will be secured, while Ukraine insists preferential postwar policies must continue, risking persistent tensions. The new Polish government aims to firmly support Ukraine, but pressures from economically struggling domestic groups are constraining the extent of this support. The trucker dispute in particular positions security imperatives against local livelihoods.
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Russia Boasts Expanded Nuclear Forces
Russian President Vladimir Putin and other senior officials have confirmed investments to grow Moscow's strategic arsenal. Putin claimed Russia's nuclear forces are vital to prevent the state being “torn apart” by adversaries. The government is increasing reliance on nukes to offset conventional capability degradation. Planned additions include the new heavy Sarmat ICBM and modernized bombers and submarines, indicating a counterforce focus.
Russia's expanding strategic capabilities showcase a nuclear-obsessed great power drifting away from global non-proliferation norms. The emerging arsenal design indicates attempts to gain advantage at all rungs of the escalation ladder, rather than purely deterrence. Development of diverse regional and tactical nukes plus the Sarmat's excessive size for a deterrent-only posture imply efforts to enable calibrated escalation for political objectives. Meanwhile, “escalate to de-escalate” remains formal doctrine within Russia's strategic decision-making.
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Philippines Announces Military Fortification Plans
Philippine military chief General Romeo Brawner has announced plans for major new construction across all Philippine-occupied land features in the contested South China Sea, including fortifying Thitu Island and upgrading facilities on Second Thomas Shoal. Brawner stated this is to improve habitability for Philippine troops and boost monitoring capabilities against Chinese maritime forces.
The Philippines finds itself between a rock and a hard place in balancing territorial defence imperatives with avoiding uncontrolled escalation that could lead to economically devastating clashes with China. Manila aims to augment personnel welfare and domain awareness capacities after previously allowing rivals to gain a head start in developing disputed land features. However, the plans expand risks that localized incidents metastasize into a wider crisis. China will likely sharply condemn what it sees as provocations and perhaps conduct shows of force. Though the US would likely back Manila in a conflict, the Philippines would pay an outsized price as a frontline state.
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North Korea's Advanced Drones Spotlight Sanctions Evasion
Images have emerged appearing to show two new domestically-produced North Korean drones nearly identical to vehicles produced by the United States. The drones are the Saetbyol-4 jet-powered surveillance UAV closely resembling the RQ-4 Global Hawk, and the Saetbyol-9 propeller-driven drone strikingly similar to the MQ-9 Reaper. Their capabilities are unclear, but the achieved visual similarity signals major strides for North Korea's aerospace sector.
The revealed drones showcase North Korea rapidly advancing key strategic military capabilities despite extreme international sanctions. The drones enable new intelligence gathering options and attack potential should their avionics perform adequately. These developments expand North Korea’s reconnaissance and coercive leverage, posing steepening challenges for regional deterrence. However, deep reliance on foreign espionage and smuggled components may produce advanced hardware that ultimately disappoint or degrade without sustained material support.