In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 24th
Germany Allows the Transfer of Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine, Pressure Mounts on Serbia to Normalize Relations with Kosovo, and other stories.
How the US role in Ukraine has Slowly Escalated
The United States has found it difficult to withdraw from conflicts in which it has become militarily involved and to avoid deep entanglements beyond lines that were drawn at the start of the intervention. This has occurred in the past in conflicts such as Vietnam and Afghanistan, and it may currently be happening in Ukraine.
The United States and NATO are gradually approaching a scenario where direct conflict with Russia may occur, despite the United States stating that its forces would not be engaged in the conflict. This is due to the presence of CIA and US special operations personnel in Ukraine, conducting clandestine American operations which are now more extensive.
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Germany Allows the Transfer of Leopard 2 Tanks to Ukraine
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has decided to send Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine and allow other countries to do so as well. The United States may also supply Abrams tanks.
The decision concerns at least one company of Leopard 2 A6 tanks that will be provided out of Bundeswehr stocks. Other allies also intend to supply their German-made Leopard tanks to Ukraine. In the longer term, more tanks could be restored to be fit for use in the war . U.S. officials have indicated that Washington may soon drop its opposition to sending Abrams tanks to Ukraine in a move intended to encourage Germany to follow. The Pentagon declined to comment on any coming announcements on the Abrams or whether Germany might green light deliveries of the Leopards.
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CIA Director in Cairo as Part of Anti-Russian Trip
On Monday, a meeting was held between President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and CIA Director William Burns to discuss ways to enhance security and intelligence cooperation between the two countries, as well as regional and international issues.
During the meeting, the importance of bilateral cooperation in promoting stability in the Middle East was emphasized. The meeting comes after the CIA Director's recent visits to Libya and Ukraine, countries where the US is seeking to limit Russia's military influence. The United States and Egypt have a strong partnership based on mutual interests in Middle East peace and stability, economic opportunity and regional security, as stated by the US State Department.
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Pressure Mounts on Serbia to Normalize Relations with Kosovo
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has called for a nationwide debate to be held on a Franco-German proposal to normalize relations with Kosovo. He stated that the Assembly in Belgrade will have to discuss the proposal and suggested the possibility of a referendum.
Vucic mentioned that failure to consider the proposal would result in the interruption of the process of European integration, withdrawal of investments, and the imposition of comprehensive economic and political measures by Brussels on the Republic of Serbia. This marks a change in Vucic's previous hard-line stance against normalizing relations with Kosovo. The proposal is expected to face challenges, as a majority of Serbs prefer Russia over the European Union as a partner and Kosovo resists recognizing Serbian municipalities as part of the deal.
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A Closer Look at Canada as a Major Oil Supplier to Europe
In 2021, Canada produced 4.74 million barrels of crude oil per day, making it the world’s fourth largest producer of crude oil. Projections suggest that by 2030, Canada will have increased its production to between 5.79 and 6.18 million barrels per day.
The European Union has imposed sanctions on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, which includes a ban on the import of two-thirds of Russian crude oil supplied to the EU by tanker. This ban increased to 90% by December 2022, with exemptions in place for certain countries. This is where Canada comes in, helping Europe meet some of its crude oil needs by finding new sources of crude oil for export and having sufficient infrastructure in place to move the crude oil to Europe.