In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 9th
Germany Reverses Stance to Support Eurofighter Sales to Saudi Arabia, Nationalism and Rhetoric Fray India-Maldives Ties, and other stories.
Saudi-Israel Ties Inch Forward Despite the Shadow of Gaza
Saudi Arabia has reaffirmed its interest in normalizing relations with Israel after the current conflict in Gaza concludes. Saudi Prince Khalid bin Bandar, ambassador to the UK, stated that normalization talks were close and reiterated that any agreement must lead to Palestinian statehood.
The admission comes on the heels of a meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with Blinken also citing the necessity of a “pathway to a Palestinian state.” Saudi-Israeli normalization would mark a monumental shift in Middle East geopolitics. However, it risks undermining key Hamas goals and its Iranian patron. With the UK also facing calls for a more balanced policy, the dynamics highlight complex intersections between Gulf state interests, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and Western involvement.
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Germany Reverses Stance to Support Eurofighter Sales to Saudi Arabia
Germany has reversed its opposition to selling 48 Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Saudi Arabia, citing Riyadh's support against Hamas rocket attacks as part of the reason. Saudi Eurofighters apparently helped intercept Houthi missiles aimed at Israel, leading German Foreign Minister Baerbock to announce the policy shift during a visit to Tel Aviv.
The move represents a striking departure from Berlin's past concerns over Saudi conduct in Yemen. While admitting Riyadh's rights record is unacceptable, German officials emphasized Saudi assistance protecting Israeli security. However, some Green Party members heavily criticized the deal, predicting Saudi forces will wage similar wars to the one in Yemen. The dynamics spotlight growing German solidarity with Israel, even at the expense of other moral stances.
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Space Cooperation Splinters Along Divided Geopolitical Lines
Pakistan's recent addition to China's International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) and India's signing of the US-backed Artemis Accords reflect growing geopolitical realignments in global space exploration. As powers promote competing visions, the era of non-alignment in space policy is ending. States increasingly must choose political alignments extending into the cosmos. This risks creating parallel frameworks for space governance along divided lines.
Initiatives like China's ILRS and the NASA-led accords both espouse broad international cooperation under peaceful aims, building on the idealistic 1967 Outer Space Treaty. However, with US-China rivalry permeating space policy, their frameworks preclude collaboration between Washington and Beijing. As space capabilities expand worldwide, states confront rival poles, embodied by either the accords or China's station initiative. The competitive dynamic risks extending terrestrial geopolitical tensions into the final frontier. Rhetoric around peaceful ideals, scientific inquiry and absolute gains belie an undercurrent of zero-sum logic as on Earth.
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Sahel Becomes Next Arena for Great Power Resource Scramble
The Sahel region of Africa has faced growing instability recently as great power competition between the EU, France, Russia, China, and the United States has intensified in the strategic region. The scramble is primarily driven by natural resource wealth, economic interests, military footholds, and relationships with former colonies.
France especially seeks to maintain strong ties and priority access to resources in former Sahel territories like Mali and Niger. However, anti-French protests during recent coups have strained relations. Meanwhile, Russia and China portray themselves as respectful partners, not conditioning aid on political transformations. Countries like Mali and Niger have increasingly turned to Moscow and Beijing for security and business deals. As militancy persists and governance falters, the Sahel has become an arena for great powers advancing rival interests through arms sales, mining rights, and military outposts.
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Nationalism and Rhetoric Fray India-Maldives Ties
A diplomatic crisis has emerged between India and the Maldives after Maldivian deputy ministers expressed disparaging remarks about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Although the Maldives government swiftly suspended the officials, India summoned the Maldivian envoy to express displeasure, sparking a tit-for-tat response.
The spat spotlights fraying bilateral ties under newly elected Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu. He campaigned on an “India out” nationalist platform, pledging to remove Indian military personnel since taking office and suspending security agreements. The row follows decades of strong relations and Indian assistance to the islands. Given the circumstances, the crisis exposes hyper-nationalist pressures driving the traditional partner states apart. Still, Muizzu's olive branch in suspending officials highlights willingness to balance ties with India and China.
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Iraq Oil Shift Cements China and Russia's Growing Mideast Clout
The West Qurna 1 oil field in Iraq recently completed an official leadership transition from ExxonMobil to PetroChina. West Qurna 1 holds over 20 billion barrels in reserves and is a key asset for Iraq's oil industry. ExxonMobil withdrew from the Common Seawater Supply Project and other Iraqi energy deals, allowing Chinese and Russian firms to take on a larger role.
The change in leadership reflects broader geopolitical shifts, as Chinese and Russian influence grows in the Middle Eastern oil sector. ExxonMobil departed after refusing Iraqi demands and risks around the Common Seawater Supply Project. Meanwhile, PetroChina utilized engineering contracts and discounts to increase its presence in West Qurna 1 and sideline Western firms. Moscow views this dynamic as hastening the end of Western hegemony in the region. However, risks around security and corruption may challenge projects like the Common Seawater Supply Project going forward.