In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 2nd
Turkey Disrupts Mossad Spy Ring, Israel Assassinates Hamas Leader in Lebanon, and other stories.
Turkey Disrupts Mossad Spy Ring
Turkish authorities have arrested 33 individuals across the country for allegedly conducting espionage activities on behalf of Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. According to Turkey's Justice Minister Ali Yerlikaya, the suspects were detained in Istanbul and seven other provinces for “carrying out international espionage activities” against foreign nationals residing in Turkey. Police allege the network intended to pursue reconnaissance, assault, and kidnapping operations targeting these individuals.
This latest espionage bust comes amid heightened tensions between Turkey and Israel. Turkish President Erdoğan recently warned Israel that they would “pay a heavy price” for any attacks targeting Hamas leaders residing in Turkey, a message echoed by senior Turkish intelligence officials. The timing also follows comments by Israel's domestic intelligence chief threatening to kill Hamas leaders “in every location”, explicitly including Turkey. Ankara appears intent on showing Israel that unauthorized intelligence operations on Turkish soil will have grave consequences. However, it remains unclear whether this escalation will translate into concrete actions beyond rhetoric and diplomatic protest. As trade and economic ties continue between the countries, this incident may ultimately be viewed as more symbolic than substantially impacting relations.
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Lobbying Battle Over Nagorno-Karabakh Heats Up
The decades-long dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region has played out not only on the battlefield but also in an intense lobbying war in Washington. Azerbaijan has spent millions cultivating influence in US Congress and moulding public opinion through both above-board lobbying and illicit means. Key to this has been engaging PR firms to push Baku's narrative, leveraging ties with Israel's lobbying apparatus, and securing energy deals to buy influence.
Meanwhile, Armenia has relied more on its vocal diaspora community to advocate its interests regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. They've secured some symbolic policy wins but failed to garner enough sway to prevent further aggression by Baku or secure meaningful punishment. The muted US response perhaps suggests these duelling lobbying forces negating each other. It may also reflect Washington's selective application of concern abroad, turning a blind eye to military actions taken by strategic partners. Either way, the outcome risks emboldening further unlawful military adventurism absent consequences, imperilling stability in an already turbulent region.
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Somalia Rejects Somaliland Port Deal With Ethiopia
Somalia has rejected a port agreement signed between Ethiopia and the breakaway region of Somaliland. On Tuesday, Somalia's cabinet deemed the pact allowing Ethiopia use of the port of Berbera “null and void,” saying it endangers regional stability. Mogadishu also recalled its ambassador to Ethiopia for deliberations and appealed for support from the international community, including the UN and African Union.
The deal, signed Monday between Ethiopian PM Abiy and Somaliland President Muse Bihi, would give landlocked Ethiopia long-term access to the Red Sea port for commercial and military operations. In return, Somaliland would gain stakes in Ethiopian Airlines and recognition as an independent state from Ethiopia over time, though no country currently acknowledges its autonomy, first declared in 1991. Somalia insists Somaliland remains its own territory and dismissed the pact as an “open interference” violating its sovereignty.
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China Funds Massive Cambodia Canal Project
A massive $1.7 billion canal project funded by China is slated to be constructed in Cambodia over the next four years. The 160 km waterway, known as the “Funan Techo,” would connect the Mekong River to the sea via the Bassac River and Gulf of Thailand. It traces the path of an ancient Khmer Empire transit route.
The ambitious initiative aims to bypass Vietnam and reduce transportation costs for maritime trade. However, the canal requires over 80 million cubic meters of water, raising alarms that it could further disrupt downstream flows into the already struggling Mekong Delta. Cambodia has assured the project won't harm the shared river, but Vietnam remains sceptical. The canal presents a chance for substantive collaboration, protecting the environment and livelihoods dependent on sustainable use of the transboundary Mekong.
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EU Walks Fine Line Restricting Russian Energy Imports
The latest agreements reveal the difficult balance European countries face in sanctioning Russia's critical oil and gas sectors. Many EU nations built heavy long-term dependence on cheap and abundant Russian energy over decades. Weaning off these supplies proves incredibly challenging, especially for Germany. Yet the desire to punish and constrain Russia's war machine has compelled gradual supply diversification and legal workarounds allowing restricted importation to continue.
The result is a patchwork of exemptions and carve outs amidst broader bans on Russian energy transports. Still, no comprehensive prohibition exists as the winter deepens and alternatives remain limited. Consequently, millions of metric tons continue flowing from Russia to Europe. Ongoing attestation requirements and sanctions on enablers represent incremental turns of the screws. But shunning Russian hydrocarbons outright could cripple economies. So an uneasy middle ground emerges between moral outrage and pragmatic energy needs. This economic coercion intends to deplete Moscow's funding over time without sudden domestic disruption.
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Israel Assassinates Hamas Leader in Lebanon
Israel has killed a senior Hamas official in a targeted attack in the Lebanese capital Beirut/ The assassination of Arouri on Lebanese soil lends a new dimension to Israel's declared goal of decapitating Hamas. It suggests Israel feels emboldened, carrying out the promised executions of Hamas leaders not just in the Palestinian territories but within a third country.
The killing breaches Lebanese sovereignty, further destabilizing a precarious region. The location of the killing signals escalating confrontation with the Lebanese group already engaged in cross-border fighting. It remains unclear whether it was coordinated with allies, had tacit Lebanese approval, or simply displays Israel's determination and capability to pursue perceived enemies across borders. Regardless, it appears another significant provocation amid warfare that continues claiming lives in Gaza while violently expanding across the region. Without progress towards a ceasefire, the cycle of retribution seems poised to intensify further on multiple fronts.