In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 7th
BRICS Adds Indonesia as Ninth Member, IDF Launches Ground Operations Beyond Syrian Buffer Zone, and other stories.
US and China Compete for Three Strategic Choke Points
Three strategic locations — Taiwan, Greenland, and the Panama Canal — have emerged as focal points in US-China geopolitical competition ahead of Trump's January 2025 presidential transition. Each region holds distinct geographic advantages: Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing capacity and Indo-Pacific position, Greenland's Arctic resources and surveillance capabilities, and the Panama Canal's control of maritime trade routes. China has expanded its presence across these areas — establishing economic ties with Panama since 2017, pursuing Arctic research initiatives near Greenland and maintaining pressure on Taiwan's sovereignty.
The incoming administration faces complex strategic decisions at each location. Taiwan's defence spending remains at 2.6% of GDP, despite Trump's calls for an increase to 10%. Greenland, though proposed for US purchase in 2019 and 2024, remains under Danish sovereignty with US defence rights through a 1951 treaty. The Panama Canal, governed by the 1977 Neutrality Treaty, has received substantial Chinese infrastructure investment, including a $900 million container port and $1.4 billion bridge project. The convergence of these three regions as strategic choke points for trade, resources and military mobility reflects evolving power dynamics between established and rising powers as they compete for influence over key geographic positions.
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Central Asian Trade With Russia Surges 193%
Central Asian and Caucasian states have become significant economic intermediaries amid sanctions on Russia, with substantial trade and capital shifts reshaping regional dynamics since 2022. Trade volumes have expanded markedly — Armenia's exports increased 193%, Kazakhstan's 30%, and Georgia's 5% by 2024. The growth stems from trade route adjustments, as goods previously shipped directly between Europe and Russia now flow through regional channels. Concurrent Russian capital inflows and migration have strengthened regional currencies, with Georgia, Armenia, and Tajikistan's currencies appreciating against the US dollar.
Regional governments maintain independent positions while navigating complex international pressures. Their financial institutions operate within global banking frameworks while preserving regional economic interests. Energy trade continues through established infrastructure networks, with Kazakhstan utilizing Russian oil export routes and regional states maintaining Russian gas imports based on existing energy relationships and geographic realities. The region's economic position reflects its geographic location between major powers, with trade patterns adapting to new international frameworks as multiple external powers seek to shape regional economic relationships.
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Assad's Fall Triggers Middle East Power Realignment
The fall of Assad's government has fundamentally altered Syria's political landscape and regional power dynamics. The new Syrian leadership under al-Shara now seeks international legitimacy while managing multiple challenges: internal fragmentation, security vacuums in southern and eastern regions, and ongoing Israeli military operations within Syrian territory. Key regional powers are rapidly adapting their positions — Turkey has intensified operations in the northeast, Israel conducts regular strikes targeting Iranian-linked assets, and Gulf states explore potential roles in reconstruction.
This transition represents a major strategic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics. Iran faces significant constraints on its regional influence with the loss of its key Syrian ally. Israel has expanded military operations beyond the Golan buffer zone, moving closer to Damascus. Turkey aims to expand its border security zone while managing 3 million Syrian refugees. The Gulf monarchies, though divided in their approaches, see opportunities to bolster their influence through reconstruction support. This has created new space for regional realignment, though risks of instability remain high as multiple actors pursue competing interests in Syria's power vacuum.
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BRICS Adds Indonesia as Ninth Member
Indonesia has formally joined BRICS, expanding the bloc's economic and diplomatic influence across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. Brazil, as 2025 BRICS chair, confirmed Indonesia's membership following its post-election decision to join, building on the 2024 expansion that included Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the UAE. The alliance now encompasses key emerging economies. Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Malaysia have submitted membership applications, while Saudi Arabia holds an outstanding invitation.
BRICS' expansion strengthens its position as an alternative to G7 institutions, with the bloc representing 45% of global population and 35% of world GDP before Indonesia's entry. Indonesia brings a rising economic power and the world's fourth-largest population into the alliance, enhancing BRICS' economic and demographic weight in global affairs. The membership reflects intensifying economic cooperation among developing nations and evolving multilateral dynamics. This latest expansion demonstrates BRICS' strategic focus on incorporating regional economic powers while advocating for reformed global governance structures.
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Microsoft, Google, Amazon Fund Nuclear Power Projects
Major Western technology corporations are driving a nuclear energy revival amid critical uranium supply constraints. Microsoft has contracted to reopen Three Mile Island, while Google partnered with Kairos for 500MW capacity and Amazon invested in X-energy's modular reactor development. The United States currently sources 28% of its enriched uranium domestically and 27% from Russia. Canada, the world's second-largest uranium producer with substantial high-grade deposits, exports 80% of its production and positions itself as a key supplier to Western markets.
The nuclear resurgence coincides with challenges in renewable energy deployment. Wind and solar projects face economic headwinds from negative peak generation pricing and increased production costs. Uranium prices are rising in response to supply constraints and projected demand growth. The situation creates new dynamics between energy security imperatives and industrial policy as nations seek to secure nuclear fuel supplies while reducing dependence on geopolitically sensitive sources. This reflects a broader shift in global energy markets as countries and corporations reassess their strategies amid shifting technical and economic realities.
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IDF Launches Ground Operations Beyond Syrian Buffer Zone
Israel has expanded its military presence in Syria following the Assad regime's collapse in December 2024, with the IDF confirming operational raids on Mount Hermon and strikes against weapons facilities across Syrian territory. These represent Israel's first acknowledged ground deployment in Syria since 1974, extending beyond the UN-monitored buffer zone. The new Syrian leadership under Ahmed al-Shara, who emerged from the rebel offensive that displaced Assad, has condemned these operations while simultaneously signalling openness to potential diplomatic relations.
The military escalation reflects a calculated response to shifting regional power dynamics. Israel's operations serve dual imperatives: disrupting weapons transfers to Hezbollah ahead of their January 26 ceasefire expiration, and establishing a security presence amid Syria's political transition. However, tactical constraints are evident — extended operations risk necessitating a permanent military presence beyond the buffer zone, while international opposition grows. The response from al-Shara's government may prove decisive. Their limited military capabilities constrain direct retaliation options, but their handling of Israeli operations could impact ongoing negotiations for international recognition and legitimacy.