In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 3rd
Brazil’s New Government Emphasizes Sovereignty in Brazil’s Future, Israeli Official Sparks Regional Diplomatic Backlash, and other stories.
Brazil’s New Government Emphasizes Sovereignty in Brazil’s Future
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been inaugurated as the President of Brazil for a third term. His inauguration ceremony followed traditional steps and was attended by representatives from a number of countries, including the United States, Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela.
Lula has articulated a commitment to national sovereignty in his foreign policy and has emphasized the need for peace between Ukraine and Russia. He has also indicated a willingness to maintain open lines of communication with Russia, even as relations between Moscow and Washington have deteriorated. Lula is expected to play a proactive role in relations between the US and Venezuela, and may seek to use his influence to ease tensions between the two countries.
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The Balance of Power in the European Union is Shifting Eastward
The war in Ukraine has been seen by some as a struggle between the US and Russia, but this framing overlooks the agency and resilience of Ukraine and other Eastern European countries in resisting Russia's efforts to re-establish Moscow-centred influence over European countries of the former Soviet Union.
Poland, Romania, and the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are all increasing their defence spending, modernizing and expanding their military forces, and pushing for more severe sanctions against Russia. The war has also empowered Russian allies in Eastern Europe, such as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has used the conflict to boost his popularity and secure exemptions from EU sanctions on Russia. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the agency and influence of Eastern European countries and highlights the need to consider their perspectives in international relations.
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Bulgaria Signs Long-term Agreement to use Turkish Gas Terminals
Bulgaria has signed a 13-year deal with Turkey to allow it access to Turkish liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals and the gas supply grid. Bulgaria is seeking to diversify its energy sources after Russia cut off gas deliveries in April after Sofia refused to pay in Russian roubles.
Under the deal, Bulgaria will be able to buy LNG from global producers, which will be offloaded in Turkey and then transferred via the Botas gas network to Bulgaria. The agreement allows Bulgaria to transport about 1.5 billion cubic metres of gas per year and will increase the security of natural gas supplies in southeast Europe.
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North Korea Vows to Increase Nuclear Arsenal
North Korea's leader, Kim Jong Un, has vowed to significantly increase the country's nuclear arsenal, according to the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA). The announcement follows a series of North Korean missile launches in December and January.
The decision was made during the sixth plenary meeting of the 8th Workers' Party of Korea Central Committee from 26 to 31 December. The KCNA report stated that the country's nuclear force is focused on deterring war and maintaining peace, but that it will not hesitate to take additional actions if national security is threatened. The report also revealed plans to develop an intercontinental ballistic missile that would grant Pyongyang a “nuclear counterstrike” capability.
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Israeli Official Sparks Regional Diplomatic Backlash
Itamar Ben-Gvir, Israel's National Security Minister, has sparked a diplomatic backlash following his visit to the contested Temple Mount holy site in Jerusalem. The site is revered by both Jews and Muslims and is a regular source of tension between Israelis and Palestinians.
Hamas has threatened violence if Ben-Gvir visited the site and even former Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid warned that “people will die” if the visit takes place. Despite these warnings, Ben-Gvir visited the site under the protection of Israeli security forces, stating that Israel will not “give in” to “threats” from Hamas. The United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Turkey all condemned the visit, which could damage relations between Israel and countries in the region.