In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 10th
Turkish Military Projects Could Upset Balance of Power in the Aegean, Canada Announces Plans to Buy 88 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters, and other stories.
The United States Struggles to Refill Strategic Petroleum Reserve
The US Department of Energy (DoE) is facing challenges in its efforts to refill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after drawing over 221 million barrels of oil from it in 2022. The DoE has rejected several offers for February purchases as they were seen as too expensive or not meeting other requirements.
The plan for February was to purchase 3 million barrels of oil at around $70 per barrel as part of a pilot program, which would have given sellers a fixed price for future deliveries. However, with oil currently trading at around $75-$76 per barrel, the DoE will postpone its planned February purchases and embark on a new approach for fixed-price offers. It's reported that the DoE may not have enough funding to refill the SPR completely, and the rejected bids are leading to speculation that refilling the SPR will be challenging.
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Turkish Military Projects Could Upset Balance of Power in the Aegean
A number of military projects being pursued by Turkey have the potential to alter the military balance in the Aegean Sea from the late 2020s onwards, to the point where Greece is unlikely to ever overcome the difference in quality and quantity.
All of these new weapons systems are intended to strengthen Turkey's fleet of some 170 armed drones already conducting regular patrols over the Aegean. On the other hand, Greece has yet to field any armed drones, with its inventory of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) currently consisting of just four leased IAI Heron TPs. To match Turkey’s capabilities over the Aegean, a significant portion of Greece’s combat aircraft would have to be dedicated to air-to-ground tasks to compensate for the country's lack of combat UAVs.
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Third Joint Declaration on NATO-EU Cooperation
The EU and NATO has signed a Joint Declaration in Brussels, condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine and reiterating unwavering support to the Ukrainian cause. The declaration also sets out a shared vision of how the EU and NATO will act together against common security threats.
The Joint Declaration aims to further strengthen and expand the strategic partnership between NATO and the EU, building on progress in cooperation between the two organisations since two previous such declarations were signed in 2016 and 2018. Together, they address growing geostrategic competition, resilience, and the protection of critical infrastructure. Other priority areas include emerging and disruptive technologies, space, the security implications of climate change, foreign interference and information manipulation.
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Canada Announces Plans to Buy 88 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters
Canada has announced its plans to buy 88 F-35A Joint Strike Fighters from Lockheed Martin for $14 billion USD. The Canadian Defence Minister, Anita Anand, said that the Royal Canadian Air Force would receive its first four F-35s in 2026, and it would replace Canada’s current fleet of CF-18 Hornets.
The purchase is seen as necessary given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and China’s “increasingly assertive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific,” making this Canada’s largest fleet investment in the last three decades. The U.S. military and Lockheed Martin have welcomed Canada’s announcement, with Lockheed stating the selection of the F-35 strengthens allied air power in Canada, North America, and around the world.
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China Suspends Visa Issuance for South Korean and Japanese Citizens
China has stopped issuing visas for visitors from South Korea and Japan in retaliation to decisions made by the two countries, among others, to restrict entry for Chinese travellers.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry said that they firmly oppose the discriminatory entry restrictions against China and will take reciprocal measures. Japan and South Korea have both protested this decision and Japan called for the visa suspension to be lifted. This move comes after a number of countries imposed restrictions on travellers from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao.