In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, January 25th
Major Power Outage in Central Asia, Violence from Afghanistan Spills Over into Pakistan, US & NATO Ready Military Response to Conflict in Ukraine
Major Power Outage in Central Asia
Millions of people across Central Asia have been left without electricity from around due to an unspecified major technical fault. The capital cities of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, as well as the Kazakh city of Almaty, have all suffered severe power cuts, with reports indicating the blackouts had extended far into the provinces of all three countries. Energy officials from all three Central Asian nations have said that work was underway to fully restore power.
Central Asian countries have seen their power grids stressed by droughts over the last year, particularly affecting hydropower capacity in Kyrgyzstan. The power grids of the three ex-Soviet republics are interconnected and linked to the Russian power grid via Kazakhstan, and all three countries regularly rely on this connection to cover unexpected power shortages. In Uzbekistan, which is the region’s most populous country, the blackout was widespread and affected much of the country, with Tashkent’s tap water supply threatened and the city’s metro unable to continue operations. In response to the power outage, authorities in Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan also said they were restarting power plants while the countries remain disconnected from the Central Asian power grid.
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Violence from Afghanistan Spills Over into Pakistan
Pakistan has secretly supported the Taliban for many years, and the withdrawal of NATO forces promised to Islamabad an opportunity to consolidate its influence in Afghanistan. However, since the US-led NATO mission withdrew from Afghanistan last year, violence and disorder has spilled over from Afghanistan into Pakistan. A recent explosion in a market in Lahore which killed 20 people and injured over 30 others was claimed by a little-known militant group — the Baloch Nationalist Army.
Pakistan has managed to indirectly influence events in Afghanistan in their favour, which has led to considerable financial losses to its arch-rival India. However, Islamabad must now contend with the fact that the Taliban does not have the necessary military or administrative strength clamp down on violence in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s Interior Minister Sheikh Rashid has admitted that the country has been on the receiving end of intensified terrorist attacks ever since the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul. Rashid linked the rise in terror attacks in Pakistan to the “Taliban’s success” against the Indian intelligence and foreign forces in Afghanistan, and stated that the rise in attacks was attributable to smaller militant groups which have emerged following the fall of Kabul.
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US & NATO Ready Military Response to Conflict in Ukraine
In an attempt to reassure Eastern flank NATO partners, the United States has placed 8,500 troops on alert to be ready for a European deployment. Defense Department press secretary John Kirby told reporters that "prepare to deploy orders" had already been issued to troops stationed at several military installations, with most of these troops expected to form a part of NATO's 40,000-member response force being readied as a contingency for any military escalation in Ukraine.
The 40,000 troop NATO Response Force (NRF) is being prepared after the US held talks with the UK, France, Italy, Germany and Poland to activate those troops. Other NATO members have also ramped up their military activities in response to the crisis in Ukraine, with Denmark sending a frigate to the Baltic Sea, Spain sending ships to join NATO naval forces in the Mediterranean, and the Netherlands expected to send two F-35 fighter aircraft to Bulgaria in support of NATO’s air-policing activities in the region. The NRF will be a multinational military force, with a bi-national Franco-German brigade of 3,500 troops acting as its core. However, the NRF is not expected to be deployed to Ukraine, and any potential deployment is intended for reinforcing existing NATO members.
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