In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, January 21st
Israel Launches West Bank Military Push, Western Intelligence Rules Out Russian Sabotage in Baltic Cable Breaks, and other stories.
Israel Launches West Bank Military Push
Israel launched a major military operation in Jenin, combining air strikes and ground forces in what it calls Operation “Iron Wall.” The Palestinian Authority withdrew its security forces from Jenin, where they had been operating since December, as Israeli forces moved in. Local armed groups like the Jenin Brigades now confront Israeli forces after previously clashing with PA forces.
The operation signals Israel's new West Bank approach following Gaza operations. After months of PA security operations in Jenin that, Israel's direct military intervention is now reshaping local control. The PA's withdrawal after a failed local truce reveals its weakening position. The timing — days after the Gaza pause — suggests Israel aims to prevent armed groups from strengthening their West Bank presence while its focus was on Gaza.
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Western Intelligence Rules Out Russian Sabotage in Baltic Cable Breaks
Baltic Sea cable breaks since late 2023 appear accidental, with US and European intelligence finding no evidence of Russian sabotage. Three ships — Russian oil tankers and Chinese carriers — damaged power lines and data cables. Investigators cite poor maintenance and inexperienced crews as likely causes, based on classified intelligence and intercepted communications.
NATO launched new Baltic surveillance operations in January 2024, deploying frigates, submarines, and naval drones. Finland's investigation of the Eagle S tanker, following December 2024 cable damage, continues. While some European officials maintain suspicions of Russian involvement, US and European intelligence services now assess the incidents as maritime accidents rather than deliberate sabotage.
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Hungary's Direct Payment Strategy Boosts Birth Rates
Direct financial support drives Hungary's fertility rate upward, while other developed nations decline. The government provides married couples pledging to have children with grants of 10 million Forints ($25,000) — equivalent to five years' minimum wage — and nearly eliminates taxes for families with three or more children., allocating 3% of GDP to family support. This contrasts sharply with Japan and South Korea's 1.5% GDP investment, despite their severe demographic challenges.
Nordic countries, once models of successful family policy, now show troubling trends. Finland's 2022 fertility rate hit a historic low of 1.32 children per woman, with Sweden and Denmark following similar declines. The data reveals housing access as a crucial factor — nations with high numbers of young adults living with parents (Italy, Spain, South Korea) consistently show lower birth rates. A winning strategy combines three elements: substantial direct payments, housing support, and early childhood education funding. Countries investing in this comprehensive approach see higher female workforce participation alongside increased fertility rates.
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Brazil's Agriculture Faces Climate Crisis
Brazil faces mounting climate disruptions to its agricultural sector, as shown by record-breaking weather events in 2024. The country experienced its worst drought in nine years across the north and center-west, while severe floods in Rio Grande do Sul caused $3 billion reais in agricultural losses. Heat waves in the southeast pushed temperatures 4 °C above average, with rainfall 10% below normal during the rainy season. These extremes delayed planting of key crops like soybeans, corn, and wheat.
The impacts extend beyond agriculture into broader economic and social stability. Hydroelectric power, providing two-thirds of Brazil's electricity, faces reliability risks during droughts. Water-related conflicts rose 37% in early 2024, with agribusiness involved in 25% of disputes. Studies project that without irrigation, Brazil could lose half its suitable Arabica coffee growing area by 2060 — significant for a country producing one-third of global coffee. The Amazon's continued deforestation, despite a 19% decline in 2024, threatens to accelerate these changes. Scientists warn 2 million square kilometres of rainforest could reach a tipping point by 2029, fundamentally altering Brazil's rainfall patterns and agricultural productivity.
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Niger Accuses France of Destabilization
Last month, Niger's military government accused France of using Nigerian territory for regional destabilization operations, specifically claiming French forces were establishing a base in Nigeria's Borno State. Nigeria rejected these claims as baseless. A recent attack on Niger's crude pipeline in the Dosso region has heightened tensions.
The dispute reveals deeper regional shifts in security and resources. Niger's uranium reserves (5% of global output) and strategic location make it vital for Western energy markets and migration control. With French and US forces gone and Russian advisers present, regional security arrangements are in flux. Nigeria's strengthening ties with France, marked by Tinubu's November 2024 Paris visit, create new tensions. The realignment forces powers to rebuild security frameworks as militant threats persist and resource competition intensifies across the Sahel.
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Caspian Sea Shrinks as Oil Production Expands
Water levels in the Caspian Sea have dropped two meters since 2003, with shorelines retreating up to 18 kilometers in Kazakhstan. The Volga River, supplying 80% of the sea's freshwater, shows diminishing flows as oil production expands. Heavy metal contamination also surrounds extraction sites.
The five littoral states — Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan — face mounting pressure to address this crisis. The 2018 Caspian Sea Convention lacks teeth on environmental protection, while 1990s-era oil contracts continue under weak oversight. Scientists project a 34% loss of surface area by 2100, risking mass displacement from coastal regions. This creates a direct conflict between the region's status as an energy hub and its ecological stability.