In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, January 11th
Turkey Fails to Intervene in Kazakhstan, US Drops Support for Greece's EastMed Pipeline, Mexico’s Relationship with the US Remains Strained
Turkey Fails to Intervene in Kazakhstan
While Turkey has made clear its intention to deepen ties with the Turkic countries of Central Asia, Ankara failed to take advantage of an opportunity to step in to help restore order in Kazakhstan. After years of promoting an Islamic identity among Kazakhs as part of its Asia Anew initiative, Turkey’s offer of assistance to Kazakhstan amid violent protests came too late, and meant that Ankara had no involvement in restoring order in the country.
Kazakhstan is an enormous country the size of Western Europe with vast energy and mineral resources, a country for which Turkey is among key trading partners, with the volume of trade between the two amounting to roughly $2 billion. With economic and political ties between Ankara and Nur-Sultan growing in recent years, it would not have been wholly unexpected if the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, had chosen to include Ankara in his panicked request for aid. However, the dynamics at play in Kazakhstan are complex and events likely caught Turkey off-guard. By the time Turkey’s Defense Minister Hulusi Akar promised support to Kazakhstan, Moscow had already answered Nur-Sultan’s call and begun consultations with other Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) leaders for a peacekeeping mission through the CSTO mechanism.
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US Drops Support for Greece's EastMed Pipeline
The US government has quietly dropped public political support to a Mediterranean pipeline project that would carry natural gas from Israel — through Cyprus — to Europe. According to Greek media, US officials have informed Greek government officials that Washington will no longer back the EastMed pipeline due to the “destabilising” effect the project has on the region.
Greece, Cyprus and Israel have approved an agreement to go ahead with the EastMed pipeline after all three signed a deal to build a 1,900-km long natural gas pipeline in the eastern Mediterranean. But the project angered Ankara in 2020 as the proposed construction route passes through disputed maritime territories claimed by both Turkey and Greece. In an apparent attempt to defuse the crisis between Turkey and Greece over energy, the US State Department has branded the EastMed pipeline project a “primary source of tension” which puts Turkey and regional countries at odds. As a result, the future of the project is unclear. While Washington was not involved in the financing of the pipeline, its signal of disinterest in the project may prove decisive in the future the project.
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Mexico’s Relationship with the US Remains Strained
During a North American Leaders Summit that took place last November, North America’s political leaders agreed on several aspirational goals but failed to find common ground on several looming challenges. While the Summit was a step toward promoting greater regional cooperation, squabbling over unresolved issues undermine the economic alliance going forward.
At the Summit last year, tensions ran high over a consumer tax credit for US-made electric vehicles. In addition, Washington has expressed alarm at Mexico’s moves to limit private investment in the Mexican energy sector. In particular, Washington has chastised Mexican officials for proposing three constitutional amendments which would effectively nationalize Mexico’s electricity sector. Compounding issues between the two has also been a long running dispute over immigration, with sharp disagreement over how to curb record levels of illegal migration along the US-Mexico border.
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