In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, July 6th
China Seeks a Negotiated Settlement and Chinese Troops Assembling on the Myanmar Border
China Could Seek a Negotiated Settlement
As the largest beneficiary of the current international order, the United States favours the status quo. George Friedman discusses how might China tackle such an environment, where the US enjoys political and military power across the Pacific, from Japan to the Indian Ocean. The US forward presence in this region affords it the privilege of control in strategic chokepoints.
Given this presence in chokepoints between various landmasses in the region, the US can — by paying the political, economic and military costs associated with such a decision — block Chinese access to the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The outcome would be a closure of maritime routes used by China to maintain its trade — vital for an export-driven economy. For the US., this is a powerful position to hold, and one which affords the option to engage China on its own terms.
But this status quo is unsatisfactory to China. It denies China access to the high seas — an essential asset Chinese development is dependent on — and cements an environment where Chinese domestic growth is susceptible to excessive US leverage. This leverage comes in the form of power over the strategic chokepoints which serve as China’s exits to the oceans.
Friedman notes that one way that Beijing might strengthen its hand against the US is through infrastructure investments in strategic allies such as Cuba, much like the Soviet Union did during the Cold War. This would allow China to threaten the blockade of US ports, equalising the negotiating position between the two powers. In such a scenario, Cuba might once more become a pawn in a global geopolitical struggle.
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Chinese Troops Assembling on the Myanmar border
Following the Myanmar coup in February, China has had plenty of reasons to be worried about the security of its interests in the country. With Chinese interests in the country ranging from Chinese corporate investments to state-funded oil and gas pipeline projects, Beijing feels pressured to act to ensure their continued operation.
For these investments to succeed, China desires peace and order in Myanmar. Chinese officials know that when there is internal disorder, ethnic Chinese families, businesses, and investments can be threatened. Given that such disorder is widespread in Myanmar due to ongoing conflicts between rival factions, which are only exacerbated by foreign interference.
Some of the violence which has gripped Myanmar has spilled into attacks on Chinese-held factories. The situation is said to be particularly tense in Kachin State, with renewed fighting between Myanmar’s military and the Kachin Independence Army (KIA). While the military regime in Myanmar has promised to protect Chinese factories and investments, doing so in the midst of armed conflict across vast distances is another matter entirely.
The state of affairs has apparently turned for the worse recently, as there are rumours that Chinese troops are assembling in Jiegao, an important border town which provides access to the Kyaukpyu pipelines. The pipelines are a fundamental element in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and many of these investments deeply bind the two countries together.
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