In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, July 27th
Saudi-Emirati National Interests Diverging and US-China Meeting Ends in Stalemate
Saudi-Emirati National Interests Diverging
Since the 1970s, the Saudis and Emiratis have become less adversarial as they have recognised areas of mutual interest. Their interests have particularly aligned in pursuing a stable oil market, checking Iraqi and Iranian expansionism, and striving to keep the United States engaged in the region. More recently, ties between the two countries have deepened ever since the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011, culminating in their joint military intervention in Yemen.
But now it’s becoming clear that the closeness which dominated the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the UAE for so long may soon be ending. In Yemen, for instance, the UAE was not willing to expend the troops or treasure necessary to fully defeat the Houthis — alarming the Saudis who saw their coalition dwindling. Similar dynamics are present in each country domestically, with some of the interests which once unified the two — such as opposition towards the Muslim Brotherhood or fear of revolutionary uprisings at home — now occupying a less significant role in regional politics.
And there are considerable differences emerging in the road ahead. One such difference is each country’s stance toward Israel. While the UAE has chosen to normalise ties with Israel, Saudi Arabia has not. In Yemen too there are points of conflict, as the war drags on toward a stalemate, relations between the UAE and Saudi Arabia could turn for the worse as each increasingly seeks different outcomes. And with both oil-rich countries’ critical industries have been deeply affected by the ongoing pandemic, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi may soon be competing economically as well.
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US-China Meeting Ends in Stalemate
US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman held a meeting with China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and vice-foreign minister Xie Feng. The meeting is reported to have ended with both sides sticking to their hard-line positions on the most divisive issues troubling the relationship. These high-level talks between US and Chinese diplomats may have illustrated the sharp differences that remain between the sides, but a tone which was somewhat less contentious than at their last meeting is a positive signal going forward.
Before the meeting took place, both sides set the stage with rhetorical statements alluding to their respective positions. China’s foreign minister warned that the US wants to “to exert pressure on other countries by virtue of its own strength, thinking that it is superior to others,” and that Beijing could provide for the US a “tutorial” on how to treat other nations equally. Whereas US officials laid out their position regarding relations with China going forward as “collaborative where it can be, competitive where it should be, and adversarial where it must be.”
After the meeting, Sherman said that as part of the discussions she spoke about the “the United States’ commitment to healthy competition, protecting human rights and democratic values, and strengthening the rules-based international order that benefits us all.” For China, Wang is said to have passed on to Sherman a list of Chinese wishes: the United States must not challenge China’s model of governance; must not interfere in China’s development; and must not violate China’s sovereignty or harm its territorial integrity.
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