In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, July 11th
Sudan Peace Initiative Faces Setback as Army Delegation Boycotts Talks, Turkey Agrees to Advance Sweden's NATO Bid, and other stories.
NATO Drops Membership Action Plan Requirements for Ukraine
NATO members have made efforts to address divisions regarding Ukraine's path to membership in the alliance. Ahead of the NATO summit in Lithuania, it was announced that the requirement for a Membership Action Plan (MAP) would be removed, which has been seen as a positive step toward Ukraine's potential inclusion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy seeks a clear invitation to join NATO after the resolution of the conflict with Russia, and desires security guarantees in the interim.
Negotiations among NATO members are underway to reach a consensus on the summit communiqué, with hopes for an agreement that addresses Ukraine's aspirations. The decision to drop the MAP requirement reflects the ongoing challenges within NATO regarding Ukraine's membership. While some Eastern European NATO members support a clear path to membership, others, including the United States and Germany, express caution to avoid potential conflicts with Russia. The summit aims to strike a balance by offering Ukraine assurances of future membership while providing additional arms supplies and maintaining an intensified version of the current policy. The dynamics surrounding Ukraine's NATO membership are complex, and finding a diplomatic solution that satisfies all members and addresses Russia's concerns remains a challenge.
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Russia-Iran Alliance Challenges Western Powers
The deepening alliance between Russia and Iran is gaining momentum, as highlighted by Russia's approval of a new foreign policy concept that emphasizes strengthening ties with non-Western states and expanding cooperation with Iran. This partnership, driven by shared animosity towards the West and a common concern for regime survival, has evolved into a complex and multifaceted relationship over the past two decades. Despite Western efforts to isolate these countries through sanctions and diplomacy, they have built a global network of solidarity with other nations discontented with Western powers, contributing to their resilience.
The alliance between Russia and Iran presents challenges for Western powers and underscores the complex dynamics of international relations. Despite Western efforts to isolate these countries through sanctions and diplomatic measures, Russia and Iran have successfully built a global network of solidarity with nations discontented with Western powers. The effectiveness of Western policies of ostracism is a matter of debate, as these countries have managed to maintain their strategic path and resist attempts to deprive them of domestic and international support. The evolving partnership highlights the shifting geopolitical landscape and the limitations of Western influence in certain regions. It is clear that these countries share common perspectives on global issues and have developed multifaceted ties based on shared animosity towards the West and concerns for regime survival.
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Sudan Peace Initiative Faces Setback as Army Delegation Boycotts Talks
The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) convened a meeting in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, with the aim of initiating a peace process for the conflict in Sudan. However, the peace initiative faced a setback when a delegation from Sudan's army failed to attend the first day of meetings due to their rejection of Kenya's President William Ruto as the head of the committee facilitating the talks. In response, IGAD announced its intention to request a summit of the Eastern Africa Standby Force to consider the deployment of forces.
The meeting in Addis Ababa was attended by United States Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs Molly Phee, who is on a two-day visit to the region. Phee is meeting with senior representatives of governments in the area, as well as officials from the African Union Commission. The diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting between Sudan's army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have so far been ineffective, with competing initiatives causing confusion regarding the path to negotiations. The absence of the Sudanese army delegation at the IGAD meeting was regretted by the organization, and Sudan's foreign affairs ministry cited their rejection of President Ruto as the reason for their non-attendance.
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Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks Face Hurdles
The ongoing peace treaty negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan face several key issues that have hindered agreement thus far. These include disagreements over border demarcation maps, Armenia's demand for international security guarantees for its minority in the Karabakh region, and the framework for peace agreement guarantors. Recent armed clashes along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and within the Karabakh region, which is under the control of Russian peacekeepers, have further disrupted peace efforts.
In a separate development, Azerbaijan has temporarily closed the road that connects its breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, alleging smuggling activities by the Armenian branch of the Red Cross. The closure of the Lachin checkpoint, pending an investigation into the alleged smuggling using Red Cross medical vehicles, adds to the tensions between the two sides. This move comes after Armenia raised concerns about a blockade on the Karabakh region, with the Red Cross accusing Azerbaijan of impeding access to Karabakh, which has raised humanitarian concerns. These recent developments complicate the peace process and highlight the ongoing challenges in reaching a resolution.
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LAAF's Involvement in Supplying Sudan's RSF
Recent reports suggest that the Libyan Arab Armed Forces (LAAF), led by Khalifa Haftar, have been supplying arms and fuel to Sudan's Rapid Support Forces (RSF) amid their ongoing conflict with the Sudanese army. The operation involves transporting goods from LAAF-controlled territories in eastern Libya to the Central African Republic and then moving them into the Sudanese interior.
Paragraph 2: The collaboration between the LAAF and the RSF raises questions about their connections and has sparked debates. Both groups have close ties with influential figures in the United Arab Emirates and Russia. The involvement of the LAAF in supporting the RSF's activities extends beyond the current conflict and encompasses broader trade networks involving Libya, Chad, and Sudan. While the direct impact of this support on the Sudanese conflict remains uncertain, it is believed to be linked to external assistance from the UAE and Russia, with the Wagner Group facilitating the transportation of advanced weaponry and military equipment.
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Turkey Agrees to Advance Sweden's NATO Bid
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has reversed his decision to block Sweden's bid for NATO membership. After weeks of negotiations and setbacks, Erdogan agreed to support Sweden's accession to NATO following talks with the Biden administration. The deal involves a potential $20 billion agreement for F-16 fighter jets and the lifting of Canada's arms embargo against Turkey. Additionally, Sweden made efforts to address Erdogan's concerns, including convictions related to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and cooperation on counterterrorism measures.
Erdogan's change of heart regarding Sweden's NATO bid carries significant implications for both Sweden and the broader NATO alliance. Sweden's potential membership would bolster NATO's capabilities and expand its reach in the Baltic region, enhancing collective defence. The agreements reached with Turkey, including the F-16 deal and the lifting of the arms embargo, demonstrate the strategic considerations at play and Turkey's desire for improved relations with its NATO allies. However, questions remain about the broader geopolitical implications, particularly regarding Turkey's EU accession process and its potential impact on regional dynamics.