In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, July 19th
France Signs Energy Deal with the UAE, Libya Resumes Oil Exports, and other stories.
France Signs Energy Deal with the UAE
The governments of France and the United Arab Emirates have signed a strategic agreement that will see the two countries cooperate in the energy sector. The deal will see the French energy company TotalEnergies and the UAE state-owned oil company ADNOC work together in “the area of energy supplies,” and will pave the way for mutual investments in other economic sectors.
France is preparing to replace Russian gas by facilitating supplies of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from different parts of the world via LNG terminals located in Norway. France typically procures nearly 17% of its gas supply from Russia, but now supplies are threatened, and the country no longer receives pipelined natural gas from Russia. Moreover, as the current holder of the EU’s presidency, France is pursuing energy supplies on behalf of the entire bloc by holding talks with the leadership in Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as potential partners who could help Europe diversify away from Russian fuel and gas.
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Iranian, Russian and Turkish Leaders Meet to Discuss Syria
The leaders of Iran, Russia and Turkey arrived in Tehran for a trilateral summit on Syria. The talks are taking place as part of the Astana Process, a framework created in 2017 to implement a cease-fire in Syria, and all three leaders are expected to discuss Turkey’s upcoming military operation in northern Syria.
Both the Iranian and the Russian governments have urged Turkish officials to reconsider the planned military operation into northern Syria. Russia’s envoy for Syria, Alexander Lavrentyev, said his government was seeking to persuade Turkey to “try to find a solution through negotiations and dialogue.” Similarly, the Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei publicly cautioned against Turkey’s planned military incursion, saying it will harm the region. Nevertheless, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed to carry out a military assault against US-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria, despite statements of disapproval from other major stakeholders in the conflict.
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Libya Resumes Oil Exports
Libya has reportedly broken a political deadlock which saw its oilfields and ports blockaded. The government in Tripoli installed a new head of the National Oil Corporation, who announced that oil production and exports can now resume. The resumption of Libya’s oil exports could restore an estimated 850,000 barrels of oil per day (bpd).
Libya’s oil production collapsed from one million bpd in March 2022 to fewer than 200,000 bpd in June according to some estimates. Blockades of oilfields and export terminals by militias and tribal groups have been a frequent occurrence in Libya since the NATO-led intervention toppled Muammar Qaddafi in 2011. Since then, armed factions have sought to control the lucrative oil trade by seizing production and export hubs and attacking oil infrastructure.
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The US to Spend $1.3 Billion on Hypersonic Missile Tracking Technologies
The United States has awarded two defence firms a contract for the development of a new constellation of satellites capable of tracking hypersonic missiles. The Space Development Agency announced L3Harris and Northrop Grumman as the winners of its $1.3 billion contest. The winning designs are a first step in a US military push to create constellations of small satellites.
L3Harris and Northrop Grumman are expected to build a total of 28 satellites in Low Earth Orbit. Each contractor will build 14 satellites, with plans to begin launching the satellites in 2025. The planned constellation, once completed, is expected to include some 200 satellites, and form a part of the Space Force’s missile warning/missile tracking architecture. The Tracking Layer satellites would be able to track fast-moving hypersonic missiles “throughout the entire flight” and predict their point of impact even while manoeuvring at speeds faster than Mach 5.
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