In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, June 1st
Issues persist with Russia's own space station, Europe and the Syrian Reconstruction, and The End of Netanyahu?
Russia’s Efforts to Keep Up with its Rivals in Space
In April, the Russian deputy prime minister of the military industry, Yuri Borisov, announced that Russia would withdraw from the International Space Station (ISS) project and set up a national orbital station. Grandiose as these plans sound, the intentions proclaimed by Borisov may be closer to a fabrication than a plan grounded in reality.
Russian analyst Pavel Luzin succinctly captures this dissonance between the proposed plans and Russia’s ability to realise them. Firstly, no decisions on the matter have been documented by the Russian leadership. Secondly, Russia cannot withdraw from the ISS unless the entire station is closed down, which remains highly unlikely. Thirdly, Russia objectively cannot put such a national station in orbit before 2035, even if it were to launch in the near-term.
Luzin is also sceptical about the goals, plans and actual capabilities of Russian industry for undertaking a national space station project. Since important space programmes are delayed in their publication, namely the state programme “Russian Space Activities for 2021–2030.” This, Luzin says, is also reflected in the tone of the meetings at the Kremlin. That projects are delayed spur questions about whether Russia is even capable of implementing such a project without the aid of foreign partners like India and Brazil, and the pressure of sanctions further compounds issues.
The head of Roskosmos, Dmitry Rogozin, has said previously that Russia is not interested in participating in the Gateway project under conditions proposed by the United States, but Luzin says this should only be regarded as part of a Russian negotiating tactic.
Read more about this story here.
What Role Could Europe Play in the Reconstruction of Syria
As the gravity of the ten year old ‘civil war‘ in Syria settles and the most significant stakeholders jostle to negotiate settlements favourable to their national interests in the reconstruction to come, what role Europe assumes and what outcome a European involvement would bring will be interesting issues to follow.
There are some who argue that European governments should prioritise efforts to support Syria’s agricultural sector with a values-based strategy to “help meet Syrians’ core needs and promote some bottom-up stability.” That there are an increasing number of international NGO’s are increasingly advocating support to rebuild the resilience of the agricultural sector means that European governments should explore how they can support this effort.
Increased involvement by the EU in the political process of the reconstruction would likely come in the shape of ground-up support, amplifying relationships with Syrian civil society with an anti-Assad political base, and providing aid through concession-based aid programs.
But there are also legitimate concerns from European powers as well as the EU bureaucracy. Leaving itself out of the process will benefit no European as other significant players reap the benefits future of this destroyed country, namely — Turkey, Russia, Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Read more about this story here.
Netanyahu’s Time as Prime Minister of Israel May Be Ending
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has ruled the government of Israel for 12 years and his persistence in power has astounded many throughout his tenure. But this may soon no longer be the case, bar another miraculous legal challenge, as it seems an unexpected coalition of strange political partners may be finally on the verge of ousting him from power.
Reports say that Knesset member Yair Lapid, chair of the centrist Yesh Atid party will form a broad coalition, and will proceed under the assumption that he has the votes to install Israel’s next government. Almost as strange and unprecedented is the fact that Lapid himself will not head the government and will be handing the job instead to the leader of Yamina, Chair Naftali Bennett.
So what has brought down Netanyahu? Ben Caspit suggests it was a critical mass of arrogance accumulated over many years, especially since his sweeping 2015 election victory after which he loosened many checks and balances and his attempted takeover of media outlets has led to a serious criminal indictment on corruption charges.
Read more about this story here.