In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, June 29th
A Lack of Empathy in US Foreign Policy Discourse and Study Ranks Countries by Their Capabilities in the Cyber Domain
A Lack of Empathy in US Foreign Policy Discourse
In instances where the reasons and foundations for conflict are not well understood between two hostile powers, and the level of animosity spirals beyond anything considered reasonable, states are either too confused or mistaken about the underlying reasons for conflict. In these circumstances, finding a remedy to the problem of deteriorating relations is more difficult.
In this context, Steven Walt writes of the importance of empathy in international relations — the ability to perceive another power’s problems from their perspective. Because it is far more costly to persuade a rival power to change its behaviour without an understanding of the origins of their particular perspective, it is critical to grasp how others see a situation to understand why they pursue the actions that they do.
Failure to do so leads to what social psychologist Lee Ross called the “fundamental attribution error,” the tendency to emphasise explanations of behavior in terms of dispositions rather than situations or circumstances. If two conflicting powers believe their rival’s actions are voluntary while at the same time believing that their own actions are a defensive response to external conditions they have little control over, finding common ground will be next to impossible.
He compares Russia’s policy toward Ukraine with the United States’ policy toward Nicaragua in the 1980s. Walt notes that in each case, a great power was concerned that developments in a nearby country might lead it to realign with its rival, and therefore sought to organise and support a violent uprising to challenge the sitting government.
But a dissonance is apparent when exploring how these strikingly similar policies receive vastly different treatment in the United States. While Americans saw and presented their policies toward Nicaragua as a circumstance forced upon them, Putin’s actions in Ukraine were largely discussed as purely voluntary, reckless, and as undeniable evidence of Putin’s and his regime’s problematic character.
The prescient point that Walt makes is that the United States would be better served if it devoted more effort to exploring opportunities to resolve disputes through genuine diplomacy, first and foremost with an empathetic analysis of an adversaries’ motivation, instead of casting foreign powers as actors possessed by evil, evil that must be vanquished if good is ever to triumph.
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Study Ranks Countries by Their Capabilities in the Cyber Domain
The International Institute for Strategic Studies has published a report in which they perform an in-depth analysis of the cyber capabilities of fifteen leading nations in the field. The study was conducted over a two-year period and aims to assist policymakers by highlighting the capabilities which most accurately represent a nation’s cyber capabilities.
The authors examined capabilities under seven categories: strategy and doctrine; governance, command and control; core cyber-intelligence capability; cyber empowerment and dependence; cyber security and resilience; global leadership in cyberspace affairs; and offensive cyber capability.
Their findings are organised around three categories: tier one cyber powers possess world-leading strengths in all categories; tier two cyber powers possess world-leading strengths in some of the categories in the methodology; and tier three cyber powers possess potential strengths in some of the categories in the methodology with significant weaknesses in others.
The United States was the only power that ranked in the top tier, meaning it possesses cyber dominance in all categories with no equals. Tier two powers possessing world-leading capabilities in some of the categories includes Australia, Canada, China, France, Israel, Russia and the United Kingdom. Among those classified under tier three cyber powers were India, Indonesia, Iran, Japan, Malaysia, North Korea and Vietnam, all possessing potential strengths in some of the categories.
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