In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, June 13th
China’s Exclusion from Subsea Cables Spurs Internet Fragmentation, Spain’s Iberdrola Sells Gas Plants in Mexico, and other stories.
China’s Exclusion from Subsea Cables Spurs Internet Fragmentation
The global subsea cable market, responsible for carrying a significant portion of the world's internet traffic, has traditionally been dominated by companies from France, Japan, and the United States. However, Chinese firms have made notable progress in this sector, prompting US concerns about espionage and potential disruptions during conflicts. In response, the US has taken measures to exclude Chinese suppliers from participating in subsea cable projects, even those without US involvement, leading to discussions about a potential division in the ownership and management of this critical infrastructure.
Despite restrictions imposed by the US, Chinese companies have adapted by constructing their own international cables to serve China and its allied nations. Huawei, a prominent Chinese telecoms company, previously established a significant presence in the market through its joint venture, Huawei Marine. However, the US government's Clean Network initiative resulted in sanctions and limited new cable connections between the US and China or Hong Kong. Consequently, Huawei Marine's successor, HMN Tech, has experienced a decline in project invitations, even for consortiums unrelated to the US. As a result, alternative data traffic routes have emerged through countries such as Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Guam. Nonetheless, China continues to prioritize regions where it holds commercial and political influence, potentially leading to a growing division in the global subsea cable landscape.
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Weimar Triangle Engage in Talks on Ukraine's NATO Membership
French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and Polish President Andrzej Duda recently held a trilateral meeting in Paris to discuss the security guarantees for Ukraine and its potential path towards NATO membership. While the leaders of the Weimar Triangle grouping expressed their commitment to providing military support to Ukraine, divisions persist regarding the extent of NATO's commitments to Ukraine's future membership.
Despite a broad consensus in European governments that Ukraine cannot join NATO while the conflict with Russia continues, differences exist among the three key NATO members on how to address Ukraine's bid for membership. While Warsaw is the most supportive of Ukraine's NATO aspirations, Berlin has sought alternative ways to support Ukraine outside of NATO. Paris has adopted a somewhat ambiguous stance, with President Macron advocating for NATO to offer Ukraine “a path towards membership” without making explicit promises of rapid accession. The trilateral meeting reflects the ongoing complexities and debates surrounding Ukraine's NATO aspirations, with NATO members navigating political considerations and security concerns in determining the best approach.
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Spain’s Iberdrola Sells Gas Plants in Mexico
Spanish utility company Iberdrola has reached an agreement with Mexico to sell its combined cycle gas plants in the country for $6 billion. This deal, hailed as a “new nationalization” by Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, involves Mexico Infrastructure Partners (MIP) acquiring a majority stake in Iberdrola's gross operating profit in Mexico, along with associated contracts and jobs. The sale encompasses a significant portion of Iberdrola's gas plants, while the company will retain its renewable energy projects and focus on expanding its wind and solar assets in Mexico.
This move by the Mexican government aligns with its broader agenda of nationalizing the electric industry, sparking tensions with the United States. The government's actions, including the Iberdrola deal, are viewed as a shift away from previous policies that facilitated private businesses' participation in Mexico's energy projects. While the Mexican government's actions indicate a shift towards greater state control in the energy sector, the long-term implications and effects on foreign investment remain to be seen. Meanwhile, Iberdrola remains committed to investing in renewable energy, with ongoing projects in Europe, the United States, and Latin America. Recently, the company secured a substantial loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB) to co-finance the construction of renewable energy plants in Spain, Portugal, and Germany, highlighting a focus on expanding its clean energy footprint in Europe.
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European Delegation at Shangri-La Dialogue Seeks Support for Ukraine
The recently concluded Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier security conference, saw a significant presence of European leaders, including Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, and six European defence ministers. The European delegation attended the conference with two primary objectives in mind: seeking regional support for Ukraine and demonstrating Europe's commitment as a reliable security partner in Asia.
In pursuit of their goals, the European delegation adopted a multifaceted approach. They engaged in high-level discussions, diplomatic efforts, and bilateral meetings with their Asian counterparts, aiming to rally support for Ukraine and condemn Russia's invasion of the country. However, the complex nature of the conflict in Ukraine posed challenges for the European delegation, as not all Asian nations shared the same perspective. While highlighting the importance of regional stability and the interconnectedness of security between Europe and Asia, some Asian countries viewed the conflict as primarily a regional European issue rather than a matter of wider security significance. Consequently, the European delegation had to navigate varying interests and priorities among their Asian counterparts.
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The Importance of Norms in Ensuring the Security of Space Systems
Diplomacy and defence in space are crucial for ensuring the safety and security of space systems. As space activities gain significance, the need for responsible behaviour norms becomes apparent. Norms play a critical role in space security by dispelling confusion, facilitating coordination, and identifying and responding to aggression. Although few space security norms currently exist, their development is essential for the defence and deterrence of all space-faring powers, helping to prevent conflicts in space, protect space assets, and preserve space use for future generations.
The value of space norms lies in their ability to prevent crises based on miscommunication or misperception from escalating into conflicts. Norms provide a common understanding of threatening behaviours, enabling space actors to avoid them and maintain lines of communication to resolve disputes. They also play a vital role in coordinating actions among partners and allies, ensuring operational alignment and reducing friction. Norms help mitigate the risk of weak links, promoting minimum standards and resilience across diverse actors. Additionally, norms aid in identifying, deterring, and responding to hostile behaviours by clarifying definitions of threats and strengthening rules of engagement. While norms cannot completely prevent violations, they incentivize adherence and facilitate collective responses to norm violators.