In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, June 8th
Chinese mercenaries in Africa, Turkey’s economy remains fragile, and China’s space program reaches new heights.
Chinese Mercenaries in Africa
Chinese investments in Africa have multiplied in recent years, especially since the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). A new generation of private security companies from China see the BRI as an ideal opportunity for lucrative contracts and international expansion.
Currently, the few certified Chinese private security companies operating in Africa appear to be doing so semi-autonomously and thus far, these guns-for-hire do not appear to be carrying out operations for the state. But these companies may yet be the tool Beijing needs in order to effectively defend its citizens and assets, and thereby avoiding a costly military intervention beyond its reach.
The opening of the naval base in Djibouti in 2017 was a signal that China was operating in an environment which demanded more security for its citizens and its interests. Before then, the Chinese presence in Africa was almost entirely devoted to trade and economic development, with the United States carrying the lion's share of the military and counterterrorism effort.
The private security market in Africa is characterized by several particularities, such as the existence of numerous armed groups offering their services, highly competent private military contractors supporting local governments or serving non-African interests.
Since 2018, Beijing has promoted talks on new capabilities for African security forces, defence cooperation and strengthening Afro-Chinese military relations at the China-Africa Forum on Security and Defense. Throughout its engagement in Africa, China has realized that it is a mistake to entrust security and development to trade alone, which has opened the door for Chinese policymakers to a better understanding of the limitations of integrating security, conflict resolution and economic development.
Read more about this story here.
Turkey’s Economy Remains Fragile
The economic growth Turkey has seen this year is unlikely to be sustainable in the long term, according to analysis conducted at Stratfor, as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pushes to cut interest rates in ways that could further destabilize the country’s already fragile currency and financial situation.
Erdogan has made clear in statements that he wants to ease Turkey’s high-interest rates despite the fact that inflation is soaring in the country. While currency or debt crises are not imminent, capital flight and tighter financial market conditions point to accelerating trends in that direction.
Politically, Turkey’s long-term economic outlook could also threaten Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) grasp on power. Pressure from Erdogan for interest rate cuts could further weaken the exchange rate and spur other negative political and economic implications. Further, fragile economic growth may give the political opposition of AKP another sticking point against the government’s economic strategy. And all of this is compounded by the record low polling numbers for the AKP due mainly to the deteriorating economic situation.
Read more about this story here.
China’s Space Program Reaches New Heights
The month of May brought significant media attention to the Chinese rocket Long March-5B Y2 as it fell back to Earth in an uncontrolled freefall. While there were fears that the rocket might affect a populated area, in the end the rocket landed safely in the Indian Ocean.
Aboard the rocket was the first part of China’s future space station which will orbit above the Earth, and the event marked the first of four launches to bring the other parts into space for construction. The space station, Tiangong, has been designed to conduct scientific experiments and “contribute to the peaceful development and utilisation of space resources.”
The geopolitical importance of outer space cannot be understated: satellites control communication and conduct surveillance on ground targets, and as such they are tools without which any power would be at a severe disadvantage. Dominance in space would allow a nation-state to monitor, and even direct, situations across the Earth.
In China’s case, satellites are used to spy on foreign militaries just like those of other powers, but Beijing’s satellite network is particularly fixated on Taiwan and its military capabilities. In effect, the last two decades of advancements in space has enabled Beijing has developed the capacity to effectively disrupt Taiwan’s communications.
The launch marks a new era for China’s ambitions for outer space, an era in which China is gradually becoming a major player in space just as its increasingly becoming embroiled in a tussle of great power politics with the US.
Read more about this story here.