In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, March 1st

Russia Set to Maintain Strong Ties with the Middle East, Energy Markets React to Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty, Ukraine Facilitates Access for Foreign Fighters to Join War

Russia Set to Maintain Strong Ties with the Middle East

While the United States and Europe have been united in backing Ukraine against Russia, countries in the Middle East have remained cautions as they seek to avoid getting entangled in a political and economic conflict which could threaten their own interests. The unprecedented sanctions levelled against Russia may work to sever ties between Europe and Russia for years to come, but in the Middle East, cooperation between Russia and countries in the region may be where Russia avoids much economic and political pressures related to its actions in Ukraine.

For Russia, the Middle East is a region with many political, economic and military partners. Russian policymakers have sold commodities and military equipment here for decades, and has played a key role as a mediator in the settlement of Middle East conflicts. As the states of the Middle East and North Africa are interested in purchasing grain and other Russian commodities, pressure from the US, UK and the EU may not be enough to sway leaders in the region to go against Moscow as grain prices surge. Furthermore, there are other opportunities for developing cooperation with states in these regions that would help Moscow circumvent sanctions. However, with each passing day that the conflict ensues, the window of opportunity for Russia to maintain strong ties with the states of the Islamic world may narrow.

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Energy Markets React to Increased Geopolitical Uncertainty

The price of oil and natural gas has risen sharply as geopolitical uncertainties associated with intensified use of military power in Ukraine. Most influential in this regard has been the widespread sanctions employed against Russia, which are likely to further drive the price of oil and natural gas in the coming days. Operational challenges in purchasing and shipping Russian crude could quickly lead to disruptions in flows, and the United States and its allies have begun discussions on a coordinated release of strategic reserves to help keep the price of oil low.

The sanctions have sent energy traders reeling as some buyers shun Russian oil and others find it difficult to facilitate transport vessels without being in breach of sanctions. At the same time, the UK has chosen to close its ports to any and all Russian or Russia-related ships. Similarly to oil, natural gas prices are also on the rise. While Gazprom continues to pump gas through Ukraine into Europe, there are genuine risks that supply disruptions are possible. At the same time, as European natural gas reserves are very low, pipeline capacity into Europe might not even be able to inject enough gas for a thorough refill ahead of next winter. Russia has thus far not shown any indication that it intends to stop oil and gas exports to Europe, though all of that could change given the severe nature of the sanctions levelled at Russia.

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Ukraine Facilitates Access for Foreign Fighters to Join War

The escalation in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has led to the government in Kiev call out for international volunteers to join in the defence of the country. In a decree penned by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Ukrainian government has lifted all visa requirements as a means to facilitate access for any foreign citizens who wish to join the fight against the Russian military.

While no allies of Ukraine have committed their military forces to the war as of yet, a number of countries have already taken steps to allow their citizens to participate in the fighting against Russia instead. UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has expressed support for citizens from the UK to fight in Ukraine as part of an international mercenary force being assembled for the task. Similarly, Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly stated that Canadians are free to decide if they want to fight in Ukraine. And in the same vein, Latvia’s parliament has held a unanimous vote to allow its nationals to fight in Ukraine if they are willing. Zelensky has actively supported the creation of an “International Legion” in which fighters from these countries are expected to join with Ukrainian forces.

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