In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, March 29th
The UK’s Changing Military Posture in the High Arctic, Talks Between Russia and Ukraine See Some Progress, Failure of US Deterrence of Russia in the War in Ukraine
The UK’s Changing Military Posture in the High Arctic
According to the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence (MOD), the High North will be considered a region of active concern for the UK in the years ahead. In a document titled the UK’s Defence Contribution in the High North, the MOD recognises the importance of the High North to the country’s defence and security, and outlines a path that the ministry will seek to carve out for the UK.
The document outlines the MOD’s focus on the country’s role in this region as part of a wider cross-Government Arctic Policy Framework that includes Arctic allies such as Canada, Denmark, Norway and the United States. The United Kingdom is not a member state of the Arctic Council, and takes the position of an observer state, granting the country no voting rights in the Arctic Council. At the same time, the massive power disparity between London and Washington, particularly in the High Arctic, means that the UK is likely a junior partner in supporting Washington’s vision for the region. Nevertheless, the UK government recognizes that there are opportunities to seize that the High Arctic is presenting, and is aware of the growing competition that is expected as the environment here rapidly changes.
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Talks Between Russia and Ukraine See Some Progress
Turkey is a Black Sea power and NATO member with deep trade and security ties with both Russia and Ukraine. These ties are crucial to the Turkish economy, and this drives Turkish policymakers to position their country as a mediator in the war. Hosting negotiating teams from Russia and Ukraine, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan urged the delegations to declare a ceasefire, and invited Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Turkey for a future peace summit.
The talks were said to have been productive, with Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stating that both sides “achieved more meaningful progress” than previous discussions. Ukrainian negotiators have been advocating for a nationwide referendum on any final agreement with Russia, while Russia reportedly decided to cut back its military activity around Kyiv and Chernihiv to supposedly increase “mutual trust for future negotiations.” The Russian side asserts that this show of trust will help go some way toward the signing of a peace deal with Ukraine. Moscow is likely demanding some relief to the harsh set of sanctions imposed by the United States and its allies as part of any deal. Though both sides have remained silent in public on the more glaring and somewhat intractable issues. For Turkey as the host nation, a ceasefire and eventual peace deal would present an opportunity to influence events in a post-war Ukraine.
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Failure of US Deterrence of Russia in the War in Ukraine
If the United States, the United Kingdom, and their European allies wished to prevent a war in Ukraine through deterrence, they have utterly failed that task. In one way of looking at the issue, the United States and its allies have failed to deter Russia from invading due to an apparent hubris present throughout US and European strategic thinking, on which overly relies on the threat of, as well as the implementation and enforcement of, sanctions as a means of deterrence.
US President Joe Biden’s administration attempted to create credible deterrence by relying on threats which emphasized harsh sanctions in the event of a direct application of Russian military power in Ukraine. Yet deterrence has utterly failed in Ukraine from a US perspective. Most detrimental to this was perhaps Biden’s admittance in December of last year that the use of US military force “was off the table.” In doing so, the United States made a unilateral concession that could have influenced the cost-benefit analysis of officials in the Russian security apparatus as they pondered on embarking on an invasion of Ukraine. After the invasion began, the effect of the sanctions to deter the use of Russian military power in Ukraine does not appear to have influenced events on the ground as of yet. For sanctions to work best they must be systematic, almost total in nature, and ruthlessly implemented and enforced.
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