In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, March 28th
UN Security Council Rejects Inquiry into Nord Stream Blasts, Signs of Cooperation Between the Taliban and Tajikistan, and other stories.
UN Security Council Rejects Inquiry into Nord Stream Blasts
Russia has failed to get the UN Security Council to conduct an independent inquiry into the Nord Stream 1 & 2 blasts, with only Russia, China and Brazil voting in favour of a Russian-drafted text. The remaining 12 council members abstained, and a resolution needs at least nine votes in favour and no vetoes by any of the five permanent members to pass.
Russia has complained that it has not been kept informed about ongoing national investigations, and Moscow has maintained that Western nations were behind the explosions. Sweden, Denmark and Germany said last month that their separate investigations were still ongoing, and they informed Russia that the damage was caused by “powerful explosions” caused by sabotage. In a joint letter to the Security Council, they also called the incident an act of sabotage. The responsibility for the attack remains unknown, nearly six months after the explosions that hit the Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines.
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The Limits of Economic Warfare
The use of economic sanctions as a foreign policy tool has been a popular choice for many countries, including the United States, in recent years. However, the events surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 have highlighted the limitations of relying too heavily on such measures. Although the Western response was swift and The sanctions and economic restrictions imposed on Moscow have done little to change the Kremlin's strategic calculus.
The lesson for policymakers is clear: sanctions are a valuable supporting tool, but they should not be relied on as a magic bullet or a primary policy tool. Economic costs may deter some adversaries, but they are not enough to change the strategic calculus of great powers like Russia or China, who operate according to their own national interests. As the world becomes increasingly complex and fraught with geopolitical tensions, policymakers need to recognize the limitations of economic sanctions and be prepared to use a range of tools to address challenges.
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IMF Approves $2.9 Billion Extended Fund Facility for Sri Lanka
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $2.9 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement to support Sri Lanka in addressing its ongoing economic crisis. This marks the 17th time that Sri Lanka has required an IMF financing program. The EFF arrangement will provide a much-needed injection of capital to fund essential imports and provide policy space for the Sri Lankan government to stimulate economic growth and facilitate structural reforms.
The EFF provides financial assistance to countries facing short-term balance of payments issues that require longer-term structural changes to address. The program typically has long-term engagement and allows for a longer-term repayment period, which aims to maintain policy space and enable the recipient government to implement structural reforms. The EFF comes with strict conditions for economic reform. The IMF demands that the Sri Lankan government reform its tax mechanisms and manage expenditure to tackle persistent budget deficits and bring spending in line with income. Furthermore, the IMF requires close collaboration between Sri Lanka and its creditors to restore debt sustainability.
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Signs of Cooperation Between the Taliban and Tajikistan
The Taliban's control over an Afghan consulate in Khorog, Tajikistan, and the uncertainty surrounding the status of the main embassy in Dushanbe is a sign of cooperation between the Taliban and the Tajik government. While the Dushanbe embassy has yet to recognize the Taliban government, the takeover of the consulate and its operation under Taliban control suggests some degree of approval and cooperation from the Tajik government.
This move may indicate Tajikistan's willingness to lower tensions with the Taliban and facilitate dialogue, as neighbouring Iran, Pakistan, China, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have already done. The development also has implications for the anti-Taliban National Resistance Front, which may be less likely to receive support from regional countries in the future, thus enabling the Taliban regime to cement its political position further. Tajikistan advocates for the inclusion of ethnic Tajiks in Afghanistan's administration and has been known to host leaders of the National Resistance Front since the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan in 2021.
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Russia and Iran Mutually Benefit from Drone and Weapon Exchange
Russia and Iran's military relationship is growing stronger, with Iran supplying drones to Russia, which is heavily sanctioned and struggling to access chips for more advanced weapon systems. This shift in the balance of power is a new reality that seemed unthinkable only a decade ago, with Iran's lower-priced and easily producible drones proving to be an ideal choice for Russia.
Iran has reportedly smuggled drones to Russia on ships and state-owned airlines, and is planning to build a factory in Russia that could manufacture drones for Moscow's campaign in Ukraine. In return, Moscow is reportedly sending captured US weapons to Iran for reverse engineering, providing access to high-tech US and NATO military equipment. In return, Russia is opening up its more advanced arsenal to Iran, which is interested in acquiring fighter aircraft, including 24 Sukhoi-35s.