In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, March 14th
Saudi Arabia to Buy 121 Boeing-787s in $37 Billion Deal, Russian Jets and US Reaper Drone Involved in Black Sea Incident, and other stories.
Israel's Foreign Minister Cancels Trip to Saudi Arabia
Israel's Foreign Minister Eli Cohen was forced to cancel his trip to Saudi Arabia for the United Nations World Tourism Organization ceremony due to the Saudi authorities' repeated refusal to discuss security arrangements for the visit. The cancellation of Cohen's visit is considered a negative diplomatic signal by Israeli officials, who were hoping for a sign of rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel.
The cancellation comes after the recent announcement of the renewal of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran through China, which has raised concerns for Israel. The move could create a China-Iran-Saudi Arabia axis, which would isolate Israel regionally and threaten its efforts to consolidate a regional anti-Iran coalition. The renewal of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran has undermined Israel's efforts to expand the Abraham Accords and consolidate its regional position. It remains to be seen how Israel will respond to these developments and navigate the precarious nature of regional geopolitics.
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Saudi Arabia to Buy 121 Boeing-787s in $37 Billion Deal
A $37 billion deal has been agreed by Saudi Arabia and US firm Boeing for the manufacture of up to 121 aircraft to launch the Kingdom's new airline, Riyadh Air. The deal will see Boeing 787 Dreamliner planes with General Electric engines delivered to Saudi Arabia, with 72 of them set for Riyadh Air. The new airline will create more than 200,000 direct and indirect jobs and contribute $20 billion to the Kingdom’s non-oil gross domestic product growth.
The launch of Riyadh Air is part of PIF’s plan to utilize promising industries and help the Kingdom achieve its goal of economic diversification. The sovereign fund has more than $600 billion in assets and is the main driver of the Kingdom’s efforts to wean itself off oil. The new airline is set to make the Saudi capital a gateway to the world and a global destination for transportation, trade, and tourism. The airline is positioning itself as a global connector and a vehicle to drive tourist and business travel to Saudi Arabia, as it aims to become one of the leading carriers around the world.
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Russian Jets and US Reaper Drone Involved in Black Sea Incident
A US military MQ-9 Reaper drone has reportedly crashed into the Black Sea following a collision with a Russian Su-27 Flanker fighter jet. The Russian Su-27 supposedly struck the propeller of the MQ-9, causing the US forces to bring the drone down in international waters. The Russian pilot's exact motives are unclear, but US officials don't see any indications of a deliberate intention to bring down the drone.
This incident follows a pattern of dangerous interactions between Russian and NATO aircraft over international airspace, including over the Black Sea. US officials are engaging with the Russians, including with the country's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and plan to summon the country's ambassador in Washington to convey their strong objections directly. NATO has also expressed concern about the incident, with Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg calling for “de-escalation and transparency” from Russia.
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EU Publishes New Maritime Security Strategy Emphasizing Indo-Pacific
The European Union published a new Maritime Security Strategy on March 10 to address evolving maritime security challenges. The new EU Maritime Security Strategy is a clear indication of the growing importance of the maritime domain in global affairs. With over 90% of world trade conducted through sea routes, ensuring the safety and security of maritime trade and transportation is crucial for the global economy.
The EU's emphasis on the Indo-Pacific region is a significant development, reflecting increasing alignment with Washington and the growing importance of the region as an economic and strategic hub. Europe's growing maritime footprint in Asia is likely to be met with resistance from China. Beijing has long seen the region as its own sphere of influence, and the increased presence of European navies is likely to be seen as a challenge to China's strategic interests. As a result, the EU will need to tread carefully, balancing its commitment to regional security with the need to avoid exacerbating tensions with China.
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Romania's Schengen Accession at Risk
The case of Romania's Schengen accession is an example of how geopolitical decisions can have both economic and political implications. As the European Union expands and integrates further, it faces the challenge of balancing its institutional goals with member states' divergent national interests. In this case, Romania's accession to Schengen is caught in the crosshairs of competing priorities, as some member states question its preparedness for membership while others see the benefits of a larger and more integrated market.
The outcome of Romania's Schengen accession process will likely be influenced by domestic politics in Romania and key member states, as well as broader geopolitical trends such as rising nationalism and populism in Europe. The EU must carefully navigate these complexities to maintain its legitimacy as a supranational institution and ensure that all member states benefit from its policies and initiatives. The outcome of Romania's Schengen accession process will have significant implications for the country's economic and political future, as well as for the broader European project.