In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, March 19th
Armenia Signals Willingness to Cede Villages to Azerbaijan, NATO Builds a Massive New Military Base in Romania, and other stories.
Armenia Signals Willingness to Cede Villages to Azerbaijan
In a bid to break the impasse in border delimitation talks with Azerbaijan, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has indicated his readiness to unilaterally hand over four villages currently under Armenian control. The villages — Baghanis Ayrim, Lower Askipara, Kheyrimli, and Gizilhajili — were part of Azerbaijan at the time of the Soviet Union's collapse and the signing of the 1991 Alma-Ata declaration. Pashinyan argued that the delimitation process should be based on the de jure border that existed at that time, which Armenia reaffirmed in the Prague agreements of October 2022.
Pashinyan's pragmatic move appears aimed at depriving Azerbaijan of a pretext for launching new military action to seize territory, including any assault that could cut Armenia's direct access to Iran. However, the fate of four other disputed villages – Azerbaijani-inhabited exclaves surrounded by Armenian territory during the Soviet era – remains a thornier issue. Pashinyan's gambit has drawn criticism from domestic opponents, who accuse him of failing to defend Armenian interests. Yet with Azerbaijan staking out an intransigent position and President Ilham Aliyev suggesting a peace deal is close, Pashinyan seems to be making a calculated concession to secure Armenia's broader strategic objectives in the fraught delimitation process.
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New Catalyst Turns Sewage into Hydrogen Fuel
Researchers at South Korea's Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH) have developed a groundbreaking catalyst that can simultaneously purify sewage and produce hydrogen fuel. The nickel-iron-oxalate (O-NFF) catalyst, created by Professor Kangwoo Cho and his team, significantly enhances the efficiency of the urea oxidation reaction, a process that can be harnessed to generate clean energy while treating wastewater contaminated with urea.
The O-NFF catalyst's unique nanoscale structure gives it a large surface area, enabling it to adsorb more reactants and accelerate the urea oxidation reaction. In experiments, the catalyst lowered the voltage required for hydrogen generation and demonstrated high reaction rates even in mixed solutions. By promoting the urea oxidation reaction, the catalyst not only boosts hydrogen production efficiency but also helps purify municipal sewage. This dual functionality could make sewage treatment more economically viable by generating a valuable by-product in the form of hydrogen fuel. Beyond its potential application in wastewater treatment, the O-NFF catalyst's ability to enhance the efficiency of industrial electrolysis hydrogen production holds significant promise.
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Clashes at Libya-Tunisia Border Force Closure of Key Crossing
Armed clashes have broken out between Libya's Interior Ministry forces and militias near the crucial Ras Ajdir border crossing with Tunisia, leading to the closure of the border on both sides. The fighting erupted as the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNU) sought to crack down on smuggling and other criminal activities in the border area.
The clashes underscore the challenges Libya's Tripoli-based GNU faces in asserting control over the country's periphery, where armed groups — including those affiliated with Amazigh tribes — have long profited from the lucrative cross-border trade. The Amazigh militias involved in the smuggling networks have objected to the government's seizure of the crossing last November, citing a lack of representation in the Libyan constitution. Sporadic fighting is likely to continue as Tripoli tries to maintain its grip on the border, disrupting the flow of commercial goods that pass through Ras Ajdir, the busiest crossing between Libya and Tunisia. The clashes also highlight the broader security vacuum and fragmentation of authority that have plagued Libya since the 2011 NATO intervention overthrew Muammar Gaddafi.
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M23 Rebels Encircle DR Congo's Goma
The strategic city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo's mineral-rich North Kivu province is being surrouneded as M23 rebels tighten their grip, threatening to escalate into a broader regional war. The rebels have fought to within 25km of the city, cutting off supply routes and sending prices of basic goods soaring for Goma's 1.5 million residents.
The conflict in eastern DRC has roots in the aftermath of the 1994 Rwandan genocide, with M23 — composed mainly of Congolese Tutsis — claiming to protect Tutsis against Hutu militias. However, there is evidence of Rwandan support for M23, including troop reinforcements and direct military intervention in DRC, which Rwanda denies. Control over the region's lucrative gold trade is also seen as a motivating factor for Rwanda. As M23's advance signals its intention to seize Goma once again, the DRC government insists it is working to prevent the city's fall. But with the army's ability to defeat the rebels questionable, the risk of the conflict exploding into a wider conflagration looms large.
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NATO Builds a Massive New Military Base in Romania
NATO has begun constructing a sprawling new military facility in southern Romania, marking a significant expansion of the alliance's presence in Eastern Europe. The €2.5 billion project will transform the existing Mihail Kogălniceanu base near Constanța into a 2,800-hectare complex capable of hosting up to 10,000 troops and their families. The base will feature advanced runways, weapons platforms, aircraft hangars, as well as extensive support infrastructure including schools, shops, and hospitals.
The establishment of such a large-scale NATO installation in Romania is bound to have complex geopolitical implications. From NATO's perspective, the base is a strategic asset that will enhance the alliance's power projection capabilities and readiness to respond to potential crises in the region. Romania's location at the confluence of the Balkans, Black Sea, and Eastern Europe makes it a vital node for NATO's force posture in Ukraine. For Romania, hosting the base offers economic benefits and cements its role within the alliance framework. However, the base's proximity to the Black Sea in particular will likely be viewed by Moscow as a provocative move that undermines its own security interests. NATO's military build-up in Russia's periphery feeds into a long-standing pattern of mistrust and tension between the two sides.
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Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Agree to Joint Water Monitoring
In a significant step towards more effective management of shared water resources, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have reached an agreement to install flow meters in each other's territory and share the data online. Under the deal, Kazakhstan will place meters on Uzbek territory and vice versa, enabling real-time monitoring of water consumption by both countries. The move comes as Central Asian states grapple with the challenges of equitably allocating and conserving scarce water supplies in the face of population growth and increased demand.
The Kazakh-Uzbek agreement builds on recent progress in regional water cooperation, including the inauguration of joint flow-monitoring stations by Tajikistan and Uzbekistan last month. These initiatives aim to foster a collaborative, data-driven approach to managing transboundary rivers like the Syr Darya, which originates in Kyrgyzstan and flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan before emptying into the Aral Sea. For Kazakhstan, as the most downstream country, securing the participation of upstream neighbours in joint monitoring is crucial. Astana has been pushing to update water-sharing agreements with Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, citing concerns over pollution and the need for more adaptive management in light of changing environmental conditions.