In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, March 12th
Stranded Russian Crude Finds New Buyers as Sanctions Bite, France and Corsica Reach Deal on Island's Autonomy, and other stories.
Stranded Russian Crude Finds New Buyers as Sanctions Bite
In the wake of tightened US enforcement of sanctions on Russian oil, a growing number of Sokol crude cargoes originally destined for India have been left idling off the coasts of South Korea and Singapore. However, these stranded shipments, totalling over 10 million barrels, have now begun to find new buyers in China and Pakistan, gradually clearing the backlog.
The shifting trade flows underscore the complex geopolitical and economic forces at play in the global oil market. As Western sanctions take a firmer hold, key buyers like India are becoming more cautious, wary of potential penalties. This has opened the door for China to expand its purchases of discounted Russian crude, capitalizing on its strategic relationship with Moscow. Pakistan's entry into the market also highlights how the search for affordable energy is leading some countries to deepen ties with Russia despite US pressure. However, the long-term sustainability of these new trade patterns remains uncertain. As the sanctions landscape continues to evolve, oil market participants will be closely watching to see how far countries are willing to go in embracing Russian crude — and how effectively the US and its allies can respond.
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Turkey, Iran, and Morocco Vie for Influence in Africa's Sahel
As French troops withdraw from Africa's Sahel region following a series of coups and deteriorating relations, Turkey, Iran, and Morocco are seeking to fill the power vacuum and expand their economic and military footprint in the volatile area. The three countries are offering military equipment, development projects, and infrastructure support to cash-strapped Sahelian military regimes battling a jihadist insurgency, aiming to reduce their dependence on Western powers.
Turkey is selling heavy combat drones and developing a trans-Saharan corridor, while presenting itself as a reliable partner to increase its visibility, prestige, and influence in countries with shared history, culture, and religion. Morocco is making its road, port, and rail infrastructure available to landlocked Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad, seeking to connect them to existing transport and communication networks in the region. Iran, meanwhile, has signed several cooperation agreements with Burkina Faso and Mali in energy, urban planning, higher education, and construction. However, questions remain about Iran's ability to fund and compete seriously with Turkey, despite its potential interest in Niger's vast uranium reserves. As these regional powers vie for influence in the Sahel, the scramble for resources and strategic partnerships is reshaping the region.
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Haiti's Prime Minister to Resign Violence Surge
Haiti's unelected Prime Minister Ariel Henry has announced he will step down once a transitional council and interim replacement are appointed, signalling a potential turning point in the country's prolonged political and security crisis. Henry, who has led Haiti since the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, made the decision amid a dramatic rise in violent local opposition, prompting him to call for international intervention.
Henry's resignation comes as regional leaders work to establish a transitional council tasked with appointing a new prime minister and charting a path towards elections. The proposed council will include representatives from various political parties, civil society groups, and the private sector, with members barred from running in future elections to limit the influence of gangs and criminal actors. The United States has pledged significant support, including $300 million for a UN-backed security mission, but the success of the transition will hinge on bridging deep political divides, restoring security, and empowering Haitian-led solutions while avoiding the pitfalls of past interventions.
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US Special Forces Bolster Taiwan's Island Defences
United States Special Operations Forces (SOF) have been permanently deployed to Taiwan's frontline islands of Kinmen and Penghu to train elite Taiwanese units in island defence and guerrilla warfare tactics against a potential Chinese invasion. The move, enabled by the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), aims to enhance Taiwan's readiness and capabilities in the face of growing military pressure from Beijing.
Under the new arrangement, small teams of US Army Green Berets will be stationed at Taiwan's amphibious command centres just kilometres from the Chinese mainland. They will conduct regular training exercises with Taiwan's 101st Amphibious Reconnaissance Battalion, Airborne Special Service Company, and other elite forces. The deepening collaboration underscores the critical role Kinmen and Penghu would play as bastions of Taiwanese resistance in a protracted island defence campaign against China. Kinmen and Penghu boast significant strategic advantages for Taiwan's defence, with their fortified positions, favourable geography, and sizable civilian populations that could rally wider Taiwanese resistance in the event of an invasion. Moreover, neutralizing or occupying Penghu in particular is seen as an essential precursor to any Chinese cross-strait operation against Taiwan proper.
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Threats Loom Over Europe's Aluminium Industry
Europe's aluminium manufacturing sector faces two significant challenges that could substantially impact consumers across the region in the short and medium term. The first is the potential ban on Russian aluminium imports, which the EU has left to member states and consuming industries to self-sanction. The EU's approach has led to a sharp decline in volumes, with imports dropping from 19% in 2018 to just 8% in 2023. A complete ban would immediately spike physical delivery premiums as consumers scramble for alternatives, and cast doubt on the validity of the LME price, given the high proportion of Russian metal on the exchange.
The second threat is the impending Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), set to take effect in 2026. This carbon tariff on carbon-intensive imports, including aluminium, has the backing of both politicians and producers as part of Europe's decarbonization efforts. Companies are already repositioning supply chains to accommodate the costs, favouring low or zero-carbon producers and scrap-based suppliers. However, the rising demand for aluminium scrap could eventually make scrap-based semi-finished aluminium more expensive to produce than primary aluminium, with market pressures forcing consumers to absorb the cost increases. This presents major challenges for countries like India, which rely on coal-fired power and have limited domestic scrap supplies. As the CBAM deadline approaches, Europe's aluminium prices could decouple from global markets, mirroring the impact of US tariffs on steel and aluminium prices.
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France and Corsica Reach Deal on Island's Autonomy
In a step towards resolving Corsica's long-running struggle for self-determination, French and Corsican officials have agreed on a draft constitutional revision granting the Mediterranean island a special autonomous status within the French Republic. The deal aims to address Corsican demands for greater powers while preserving the island's place within France's unitary state. Under the proposed revision, Corsica's “historical, linguistic and cultural community” and its “singular ties” to the land would be recognized in the French constitution.
The agreement comes six months after President Emmanuel Macron broke a longstanding French taboo by openly endorsing “a form of autonomy” for the island. It represents a major shift for both Corsica and France's highly centralized Fifth Republic. However, the path to enshrining Corsica's special status in the constitution remains fraught with obstacles. The revision will require the backing of both houses of parliament, and a three-fifths majority in a joint session. As Corsica inches towards a redefinition of its relationship with the French state, the stakes could hardly be higher. If successful, the island's autonomous status could offer a template for reconciling regional identities with national belonging in an era of resurgent nationalism. But if the reform drive stalls, it risks rekindling the cycle of violence that has long haunted the island.