In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, March 22nd
European Union Adopts Strategic Compass Document, Egypt and Sudan Deepen Military Ties to Balance Against Ethiopia, Serbia Cultivates Closer Ties with China as Russia Falls Under Sanctions
European Union Adopts Strategic Compass Document
The defence ministers of European Union member states have adopted a long-awaited Strategic Compass document, presenting a plan to drastically boost collective defence efforts. The Strategic Compass highlights the EU’s growing alignment with NATO doctrine and infrastructure, as well as the continent’s continued reliance on the United States as its primary geostrategic partner in the coming years. European Union defence ministers jointly agreed to work to uphold the “international rules-based order” by continuing to strengthen ties with established allies within the UN, NATO and G7 frameworks.
For the first time in the Union’s history, Russia has been directly branded as the primary geopolitical threat, countering which will require the United States to remain the EU’s “staunchest and most important” strategic partner. Aside from setting a clear path toward deeper alignment with the US, the EU Strategic Compass document outlines ways EU member states will go about improving European security going forward. The EU will establish a Rapid Deployment Brigade of up to 5000 troops, conduct regular live exercises on land and at sea, enhance military mobility, boost intelligence analysis capabilities, develop hybrid warfare capabilities, improve offensive and defensive cyber tools, develop an information manipulation and interference toolkit, formulate a collective space strategy, and strengthen the EU’s role as a maritime security actor.
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Egypt and Sudan Deepen Military Ties to Balance Against Ethiopia
Egypt and Sudan have continued to develop military ties amid rising tensions with Ethiopia. The interests of both Khartoum and Cairo align over access to water, particularly the Nile River, access to which Ethiopia threatens to limit for both countries via the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Most recently, Egypt and Sudan held high-level military talks amid mounting tensions over the giant hydroelectric dam on the Blue Nile, the main tributary of the Nile River.
Relations between Sudan and Egypt have grown significantly recently, especially at the military level. Egypt and Sudan continue to condemn Ethiopia’s unilateral filling and operation of the dam, labelling Ethiopia’s unilateral start of power generation a violation of the Declaration of Principles signed by all three countries in 2015. The conflict is likely to intensify in the coming months as Ethiopia begins the third filling phase of the dam, threatening agricultural yields for both Egypt and Sudan in the process. Ethiopia remains adamant that the downstream countries have no cause to intervene in the operation of the dam, setting the stage for intensified military competition as diplomatic efforts fail to bring about a compromise. Ethiopian State Minister of Foreign Affairs Redwan Hussein has said that the completion of the dam “cannot be stopped,” and that Ethiopia will continue to “move forward” with the filling of the damn “regardless of the position of the downstream countries.”
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Serbia Cultivates Closer Ties with China as Russia Falls Under Sanctions
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent sanctions imposed following its military actions there have complicated the country’s relations with Serbia. With its partnership with Russia under serious duress, Serbian officials have keenly explored deepening ties with Beijing as China becomes an increasingly important economic and political partner to Serbia. Chinese infrastructure projects in the country enable Serbian elites to boost economic development as an influx of capital from China allows Serbia to withstand pressures from Brussels and Washington.
In recent years, Beijing has possessed resources that Moscow does not, which has exposed the limits of the relationship between Serbia and Russia despite longstanding Slavic and Orthodox ties. Serbia is geographically encircled by NATO and remains tied to the EU as the bloc is Serbia’s primary economic partner. Serbia still counts on Russian backing at the UN in the Kosovo dispute, and the country is dependent on Russian gas. However things are changing quickly as China occupies an increasingly important role in the Serbian economy. By late 2021, Chinese investments in Serbia were in excess of €3 billion and Chinese infrastructure loans to Belgrade are estimated to be in excess of €8 billion. Militarily too Serbia appears to be increasingly looking to Beijing to provide it capabilities that others are unwilling or unable to, with Serbia making purchases of advanced drones from China.
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