In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, May 16th
Increased Deployment of Russian Strategic Bombers Near Finland, Ecuador and China Forge Free Trade Agreement, and other stories.
EU's Anti-China Alliance Faces Opposition in the Indo-Pacific
The EU's efforts to form an anti-China alliance with Asian and Pacific countries hit a roadblock at the EU Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum in Stockholm. Several foreign ministers expressed their reservations, with Indonesia's Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi stating that Southeast Asian nations were not interested in being part of a new Cold War. Pakistan's Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, Hina Rabbani Khar, opposed the division of the world into blocs, while Singapore's Minister for Foreign Affairs, Dr Vivian Balakrishnan, called for greater respect for the norms of the global trading system.
The EU's foreign policy refocus, cantered on a strategy paper presented by EU Foreign Affairs Commissioner Josep Borrell, indicates a significant escalation in the confrontation with China. The paper emphasizes the concept of systemic rivalry across various fields and proposes reducing cooperation with China to minimize risks. However, there is no consensus within the EU, as different voices emerged during the Stockholm meeting. While some suggested sweeping sanctions against China, others, like Cyprus' Foreign Minister Constantinos Kombos, referred to China as a constructive partner. The EU's attempts to rally the Indo-Pacific countries against Russia and China also faced resistance, with ministers advocating for an open and inclusive approach and rejecting the division of the world into blocs.
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Increased Deployment of Russian Strategic Bombers Near Finland
Satellite imagery has revealed the presence of approximately 16 strategic bombers at Russia's Olenya Air Base, located near Finland and Norway. The images showcase the base housing 14 Tu-95 bombers, two Tu-160 bombers, and two Tu-22M bombers, alongside other heavy transport aircraft.
Earlier, the Engels Air Base in Russia experienced a surge in strategic bombers, signalling a potential large-scale aerial raid. However, the subsequent unprecedented drone attack on both Engels Air Base and Dyagilevo Air Base prompted the relocation of bombers to remote northern areas, beyond the reach of Ukrainian drones or missiles. In December, Ukrainian forces allegedly deployed a Tu-141 Stizh drone modified for a high-value attack on the Russian air bases. This attack highlighted the vulnerabilities of Russian air defences, leading to the relocation of bombers and increased vigilance regarding potential drone threats.
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Scenarios for Ukraine's EU Membership
Ukraine’s path to full integration in the European Union remains fraught with challenges. While the country has made rapid progress to candidate status, the negotiation process is expected to be lengthy and intricate. Ukraine must fulfill extensive reforms under the Copenhagen criteria, encompassing political, legal, and economic conditions. Although the EU's new accessions methodology aims to make enlargement more credible and dynamic, it is unlikely to expedite Ukraine's membership or that of other states vying for candidacy.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine further complicates the country's path to EU membership. The outcome of the conflict will determine the pace at which Ukraine joins the EU. A limited "victory" for Russia could decouple Ukraine from the West, undermining the efforts and resources invested in supporting the country. A ceasefire or armistice, while bringing relative calm, could also perpetuate a frozen conflict, leaving unresolved territorial disputes and the potential for renewed fighting. The EU must carefully weigh the risks of integrating Ukraine under the threat of a frozen conflict and consider the implications for the membership process. Even in the event of a Ukrainian victory, the post-war period would require substantial efforts in reintegration, reconstruction, and accessions-based reforms.
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Saudi Arabia's Diplomatic Role Takes Centre Stage in Sudan Conflict
A month into Sudan's complex and multifaceted conflict, the country grapples with a dire situation marked by more than 600 deaths and escalating violence. The power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) goes beyond a mere battle for control; it represents a clash with existential implications for both sides. The recent talks in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, mediated by Saudi Arabia and the United States, were aimed to find a resolution. However, the signing of a “declaration of principles” does little to bring an end to the violence, as air raids and artillery attacks have persisted.
Saudi Arabia's involvement carries significant geopolitical weight. The kingdom's eagerness to broker peace and demonstrate its diplomatic leadership in the Arab world is motivated by several factors. Firstly, stability in Sudan aligns with Saudi Arabia's own interests, as a destabilized Sudan could trigger a refugee crisis and provide fertile ground for armed groups. Additionally, the Saudi Vision 2030 agenda, could be adversely affected by the turmoil in Sudan. Moreover, Sudan represents an important investment destination for Saudi Arabia, particularly regarding its food security strategies. As the conflict unfolds, Saudi Arabia's unique position as a key player in the Arab world grants it a special diplomatic role.
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Ecuador and China Forge Free Trade Agreement
Ecuador and China have signed a free trade agreement, solidifying their economic ties. The deal is expected to significantly boost Ecuador's non-oil exports by $3 billion to $4 billion over the next decade, with China already being Ecuador's largest non-oil trade partner and a major source of financing for infrastructure and energy projects.
The free trade agreement grants preferential access for 99 percent of Ecuador's exports to China, particularly agricultural and agro-industrial products like shrimp, bananas, cut flowers, cocoa, and coffee. While the deal represents an opportunity for Ecuador to enhance its cooperation with Asia, it is likely to face resistance from the United States, which has been seeking to counter China's expanding presence in Latin America. Ecuador's evolving economic and geopolitical dynamics underscore the delicate balance the country must navigate between its traditional ties with the US and its growing economic ties with China.