In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, May 9th
Anticipating a Ukrainian Counteroffensive, UAE Cancels €800 Million Helicopter Contract with Airbus, and other stories.
Political Turmoil in Pakistan Sparks Protests and Tensions
Political turmoil in Pakistan following the arrest of former prime minister Imran Khan has sparked violent protests and heightened tensions between the government and military. While the official reason for Khan's arrest is linked to a fraud case, many believe it is politically motivated due to his previous clashes with the security establishment. The protests have targeted police and military installations, with some reports of clashes in provincial cities.
The situation presents a dilemma for the United States, which aims to publicly support democratic processes in Pakistan while also maintaining cordial relations with all major political parties and relying on Pakistan's military establishment as a partner in counterterrorism efforts. Any involvement from the US could potentially do more harm than good, as the crisis threatens to deal a severe blow to Pakistan's efforts to overcome its economic crisis and secure regional assistance, including an IMF bailout.
Read more about this story here.
Anticipating a Ukrainian Counteroffensive
Ukraine is preparing for a major counteroffensive against Russian forces, with leaked US intelligence suggesting that Ukrainian forces trained in NATO countries are finishing their final preparations. The main targets are likely to be in the Zaporizhzhia region towards the Sea of Azov, with a flexible plan depending on where Russian forces are positioned.
The stakes are high for Ukraine and its Western allies, with the window of opportunity for a major counteroffensive closing fast. Retaking the land corridor between Russia and Crimea would deal a significant blow to Putin's regime, and incentivize further Western support for territorial gains in other strategic areas of southern Ukraine. It remains to be seen how the counteroffensive will play out and its impact on the region.
Read more about this story here.
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe Introduces Gold-Backed Digital Currency
The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe has released a gold-backed digital currency for peer-to-peer and peer-to-business transactions. However, the move has not been well received by economists and Zimbabweans. Zimbabwe aims to stabilize its local currency, which has been losing value against the US dollar, by introducing gold-backed coins. The country plans to build its gold reserves to around $100m.
The recent introduction of gold-backed coins is part of an ongoing re-dollarization process. The Zimbabwe dollar is reportedly trading at $1 US for every $2,000 on the black market, and previous efforts to stabilize the currency have not been successful. Zimbabwe was forced to abandon the use of US dollars after they vanished from the country’s circulation. Zimbabwe’s central bank introduced bond notes in 2016, a currency it said had the same value as the greenback, to fix the problem. Gold coins were introduced in June last year to stabilise the currency.
Read more about this story here.
Stalemate in Sudan Continues as Conflict Shows No Signs of Ceasing
Conflict between the RSF and SAF in Sudan has led to widespread violence and instability. Despite de-escalation efforts and peace initiatives, underlying factors continue to fuel conflict. The RSF, a paramilitary force composed of militias, and the SAF, Sudan's official military, have differing interests and fighting tactics.
A proposed solution is a peace agreement between the RSF and SAF, but mutual mistrust regarding future control of the country makes it unlikely to be achieved. Any resolution depicting the division of control will create further instability, including conflicting views on handing control over to a civilian authority. International players, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Russia, the US, and Israel, will all want their interests considered as well. As fears of a wider conflict rise in tandem, military escalation involving Sudan’s powerful army is the last thing the Middle East needs.
Read more about this story here.
UAE Cancels €800 Million Helicopter Contract with Airbus
The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has terminated a contract to purchase 12 H225 Caracal multirole helicopters from French company Airbus, citing high lifecycle costs and limitations in adapting to future mission requirements. The Tawazun council, the UAE's independent government entity responsible for research and development as well as technological innovation in the defence sector, said the cancellation was not politically motivated but based on financial and technical reasons.
The UAE had ordered the H225M Caracal helicopters in December 2021 for an estimated price of €750-€800 million. The military version of the H225 can be mounted with different sets of weaponry and is operational within the French air force, as well as being contracted for export by 11 customers. The Tawazun council's main research and development goal is to support acquisition operations, generate intellectual property and product lines, and nurture national talents. It has signed contracts with major defense contractors to co-develop in its labs in the UAE, including Raytheon, Boeing, Leonardo, Saab, L3 Harris, and others.