In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, May 24th
Quad Members Agree to Create Maritime Surveillance System, Greece Functioning as a Hub for Russian Energy Transfers, Japan to Take More Active Role in Regional Security
Quad Members Agree to Create Maritime Surveillance System
The countries of the Quad — Australia, India, Japan and the United States — have agreed to create a joint maritime surveillance system. The initiative is primarily justified as a means for all participant countries to combat illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific, and follows complaints from Japan and other countries in the region about incursions by Chinese ships into their waters.
Japan currently holds the rotating presidency of the Quad, and has used this platform to denounce alleged incursions by Chinese vessels in the waters surrounding the Japanese archipelago and the Senkaku Islands. The new initiative, called the Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness Association, promises its members a “near real-time picture” of maritime activities in fishing areas. This will work to expand the QUAD members' maritime capabilities in the waters of the Pacific, Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. In addition to the surveillance pact, QUAD leaders committed to increased cooperation on infrastructure as a means to drive “productivity and prosperity” in the Indo-Pacific region.
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Greece Functioning as a Hub for Russian Energy Transfers
Greece has emerged as a new hub where Russian oil is transferred ship-to-ship. In recent months, Russia has been increasing fuel exports headed to Greece, with some estimates for oil shipments from Russia to Greece rising by 2.5 million barrels. Trading Russian crude and oil products within the EU remains legal, though sanctions applied on Russian entities have raised costs associated with buying Russian energy. Nevertheless, loopholes have emerged, with Greece serving as a hub to facilitate the transfer of Russian commodities.
Despite considerable political pressures to anyone buying Russian energy commodities, Russia is still managing to sell a large amount of its oil and gas. This is due in part because some of the world's biggest commodity traders are still active in trading Russian energy commodities, with Switzerland's Vitol, Glencore, and Gunvor, as well as Singapore's Trafigura, all continuing to lift large volumes of Russian crude and oil related products. Moreover, while the G7 has committed to banning or phasing out the use of Russian oil, and while the US, Canada, the UK, and Australia have imposed bans, the European Union is still unable to move forward while Hungary refuses to budge. Meanwhile, India and China are eagerly signing new import deals for discounted Russian crude, which helps to mitigate the power of EU sanctions.
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Japan to Take More Active Role in Regional Security
Japan's geographic location places the country at the whim of an increasingly volatile security environment. Japan is flanked by China to the south, nuclear-armed North Korea to the west, and Russia to its north, all three of which have problematic ties with the United States — Japan's main security partner. The Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, sees some parallels between Russia's actions in Europe and China's rising power in the Indo-Pacific, and is seeking increased militarization as a way to deter these threats moving forward.
Kishida has made clear that his government worries about China’s growing “military activities,” and the Prime Minister is making regular calls for greater military capabilities to be in the hands of the Japanese armed forces. This marks somewhat of a departure from Japan's traditionally dovish security policy, thought Japanese policymakers have been transforming Japan's foreign policy in recent years. According to a draft of upcoming economic and fiscal policy guidelines, the Japanese government is reportedly preparing to pledge a drastic increase in the country's defence capabilities. Reports indicate that Japan will focus on strengthening its stand-off weapons, outer space and cyberspace capabilities by significantly increasing defence spending.
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