In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, May 3rd
Russia’s Demographic Decline, Japan's Energy Security at Risk, Roadblocks to EU Sanctions on Russian Oil
Russia’s Demographic Decline
Russia is increasingly threatened by a serious demographic decline. While its national power is made up of considerable military, intelligence, and technological capabilities, the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, an astute diplomatic tradition and vast deposits of natural resources, the country’s long-term demographic prospects look bleak. If the current trend of Russia's demographic projections is not reversed, Russia may see its declining population compromise its own survival as a nation-state.
While enjoying the status of the largest country in the world — occupying an enormous 17.1 million kilometres — Russia has only 8 inhabitants per square kilometre. Although it is the world’s ninth most populated nation with 145 million people, Russia's population density is among the lowest of all countries. Russia's population has seen a steady decline since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, with fertility rates dropping well below replacement levels. While Russian fertility rates have risen since the 1990s, the country's replacement rate remains low due to a combination of citcumstances which have worked to discourage births and raise mortality rates. Long-term population trends indicate that Russia’s demographic shortcomings could hinder the effective functioning of the state and permanently undercut Russia's status as a great power.
Read more about this story here.
Japan's Energy Security at Risk
Japan's government is mulling whether or not to withdraw from energy projects in Russia at the cost of increasing energy insecurity. Japanese Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has thus far avoided clarifying whether or not a decision has been made by stating that Japanese sanctions on Russian energy require a “careful examination of the situation in terms of stable energy supply and security.” Amid mounting pressure to follow in the footsteps of the United States and the European Union, Tokyo has maintained that energy flows from Russia are a matter of “national interest” that should be protected “to the maximum extent possible.”
Japan has struggled to change its fossil fuel-reliant energy use. Due to safety concerns following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, the country's 36 nuclear reactors were shut down, and over half remain mothballed to this day. Japan is a net energy importer, and the country depends on imports for 99.6% of its coal, 97.8% of its gas, and 99.7% of its oil. Russia accounts for 11% of its coal imports, 9% of its natural gas imports, and 4% of total oil imports. Japanese policymakers justifyably fear that leaving Russian energy projects would create energy shortages in Japan, and these fears have reinforced Tokyo's unease about sanctioning Russian energy projects. Japan's caution is in constrast to the approach taken by other allies of the US who also depend on Russian hydrocarbons. Japan's participation in the US-led sanctions regime against Russia has thus far involved blocking Russian banks from SWIFT, freezing assets, and halting imports of certain Russian goods.
Read more about this story here.
Roadblocks to EU Sanctions on Russian Oil
As the European Union prepares another round of sanctions on Russia, reports indicate that the upcoming restrictions may include a phased EU-wide ban on Russian oil. European Council President, Charles Michel, has pledged to “break the Russian war machine” by leading efforts aimed at decoupling EU member states from from Russia's energy supplies. All 27 members of the EU are set to start discussions on the new round of sanctions on Wednesday as some member states have already indicated that sanctioning Russian oil would be impossible. As Slovakia and Hungary — both of which heavily rely on Russian oil — have publicly opposed including Russian oil in the latest round of sanctions, Brussels has suggested both countries may receive exemptions.
Slovakia and Hungary are both connected to the southern route of the Druzhba pipeline, which brings Russian oil to Europe. Both countries are particularly dependent on oil flows from Russia, with Slovakia receiving 96% and Hungary receiving 58% of crude oil and oil products imports from Russia in 2021. Slovakia's Economy Minister, Richard Sulik, said the country’s only refiner would be unable to immediately switch away from Russian crude as changing out the necessary technologies would take years. Similarly, the Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, has said the country will oppose any sanctions which will disrupt the transport of natural gas or oil from Russia. Szijjarto stressed that Hungary's energy supplies should not be disrupted due to the fact that it is currently “physically impossible” for the Hungarian economy to function without supplies from the Druzhba pipeline.
Read more about this story here.