In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, May 30th
Brazil and Venezuela Seek Diplomatic Reconciliation, Balochistan Insurgents Threaten China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, and other stories.
Malaysia Detains Chinese Ship for Looting WWII Wrecks
A China-registered vessel detained by Malaysia's maritime agency has raised concerns over an illegal salvage operation targeting two British World War II shipwrecks off the coast of Pahang. The wrecks in question, the HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse, were sunk by Japanese submarines in December 1941 during the early days of the Japanese blitzkrieg in British Malaya and Singapore. Scavengers were reportedly pillaging the wrecks for valuable materials, including steel, high-grade aluminium, and brass fixtures.
The Malaysian authorities were alerted by fishermen and divers who observed a foreign grab dredger operating in the area, leading to the investigation of the China-registered vessel. The salvage operation has highlighted the vulnerability of historic heritage sites and the need for better protection of war graves. Both shipwrecks are designated as war graves and are protected under international maritime law. The salvagers were reportedly targeting the wrecks for scrap steel, aluminium, and brass fittings, with the intention of selling them on the open market. The incident underscores the ongoing challenges faced by authorities in protecting underwater naval heritage sites and calls for the development of a management strategy to better safeguard these wrecks.
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Brazil and Venezuela Seek Diplomatic Reconciliation
In a meeting at the Planalto Palace in Brasilia, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro discussed the resumption of diplomatic ties between their countries. Lula emphasized the importance of full integration between Brazil and Venezuela, acknowledging the past difficulties and political contingencies that strained their relationship. He expressed his optimism that the meeting marked a new era of cooperation and emphasized the need to overcome the prejudice against Venezuela. Maduro, in turn, advocated for regional integration and suggested Venezuela's entry into the BRICS bloc.
During the South American Summit hosted by Brazil, Lula also expressed his vision of an economic bloc that would promote the de-dollarization of South American economies. He advocated for the establishment of a common currency, similar to the euro in the European Union, as a way to enhance regional trade and reduce dependence on the US dollar. The Brazilian president's proposals align with his aim to create a conducive environment for South American countries to conduct business and strengthen regional integration. The meeting between Lula and Maduro, marked by the aspiration for integration and cooperation, signifies a potential turning point in Brazil-Venezuela relations as it reflects the leaders' commitment to overcoming past obstacles and rebuilding diplomatic ties.
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China Rejects US Defense Secretary's Meeting Request
The attempt by the Biden administration to improve relations with China has hit a roadblock as Beijing declined a request for a meeting between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China's defence minister Li Shangfu at the upcoming Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. The Chinese government has cited US-imposed sanctions on Li as the reason for rejecting the meeting, indicating that it would be inappropriate as long as the sanctions remain in place. The sanctions, imposed in 2018, were intended to respond to Chinese purchases of Russian arms. However, beyond the legal aspects, the issue highlights a deeper concern for the Chinese government – the desire for equal treatment and recognition as a rising power.
The rejection of the meeting request adds to the existing challenges in US-Chinese relations, with no direct communications between top military officials for the past six months. While there have been recent positive signs, such as the meetings between US national security adviser Jake Sullivan and China's top foreign policy official Wang Yi, the impasse on military-military dialogue persists. The refusal to engage at a senior-level meeting raises concerns about the lack of progress in stabilizing bilateral ties and the potential risks associated with the prolonged suspension of US-China military dialogue. Achieving a constructive relationship will require a more nuanced understanding of China's perspective and a willingness to make diplomatic efforts that include necessary concessions and flexibility on both sides.
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Balochistan Insurgents Threaten China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
The Balochistan insurgency in Pakistan poses a significant challenge to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which aims to enhance connectivity and boost economic development in the region. The Baloch Republican Army insurgent group, driven by grievances related to resource exploitation and insufficient development in their province, has targeted security forces and Chinese assets to disrupt the CPEC. While they lack the capacity to defeat the Pakistani military, the insurgents persist in conducting periodic attacks, indicating that the conflict is likely to continue.
The Pakistani government has responded by implementing security operations and checkpoints to protect population centers and critical infrastructure. However, the efficacy of these measures remains uncertain. Previous cycles of insurgency in Balochistan have concluded through negotiations, but the current wave of violence has endured the longest and resulted in significant casualties. Despite calls for peace, the Baloch Republican Army and its affiliated groups have rejected negotiations, expressing concerns about the survival of the Baloch people and opposing the influx of other ethnic groups attracted by job opportunities associated with the CPEC. The situation in Balochistan underscores the complex dynamics and challenges involved in addressing the grievances and aspirations of marginalized communities within the context of major infrastructure projects and regional development initiatives.
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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Challenges Liberal Assumptions
The recent Russian invasion of Ukraine has prompted a closer examination of the prevailing theories in the field of international relations. While some may have been surprised by the aggression displayed by Russia, a deeper understanding of international politics suggests that such acts of aggression should not be unexpected. The historical record indicates that it is imperative for states to prioritize their security and survival.
The conflict challenges assumptions of liberal theories that emphasize declining violence and cooperation, while validating key assumptions of neorealist theories that focus on anarchy, survival, and security. Liberal assumptions regarding the declining importance of state survival and security, as well as the stability of modern alliances, have been challenged by the events in Ukraine. It has become evident that state survival remains a paramount concern, and alliances are formed based on interests rather than enduring cooperation. On the other hand, neorealist theories that emphasize an anarchical international system and the pursuit of security increasingly find validation.