In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, November 2nd
Ethiopia Declares National Emergency as Rebels Make Gains and Russia Strikes a Delicate Balance in the South Caucasus
Ethiopia Declares National Emergency as Rebels Make Gains
Ethiopia has declared a nationwide state of emergency after two crucial towns were seized by Tigrayan rebel groups. Ethiopia sent its armed forces into the Tigray region last year, where they conducted operations against rebel forces after Ethiopian military outposts came under constant attack. A year on, the rebels appear to be making considerable gains, and are now well positioned to advance on the capital. Making matters worse for the Ethiopian government is the mounting international pressure which threatens to cut off aid.
Tigrayan rebels are said to have captured several towns in recent days, including the strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha in the Amhara region. The capture of these towns means the rebel forces are able to make a push toward Addis Ababa. Moreover, the capture of Kombolcha, a town sitting adjacent to a highway linking the capital to the port of Djibouti, would be a significant strategic gain for the Tigrayan fighters, and would allow them to cut off supplies to the government forces in Addis Ababa. Ethiopian officials continue to deny claims of rebel territorial gains, but government authorities have nonetheless chosen to implement emergency measures, telling residents to prepare to defend their neighbourhoods against Tigrayan forces.
The situation remains precarious for the Ethiopian government. Northern Ethiopia remains under a total communications blackout with access to the region restricted. Furthermore, international pressure is mounting as the United States has threatened to expel Ethiopia from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) over the crisis in the Tigray region unless “urgent action” is taken. AGOA grants Ethiopia duty-free access to the US market for specific trade goods, the loss of which would be devastating for the Ethiopian economy. US special envoy to the Horn of Africa, Jeffrey Feltman, said that Ethiopia can avoid such a scenario only if the country “takes certain steps in the days ahead.”
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Russia Strikes a Delicate Balance in the South Caucasus
As the main arbiter of the agreement which concluded the Second Karabkh War between Azerbaijan and Armenia last year, Russia must find a way to implement the terms of the agreement between both sides while upholding a delicate ceasefire. One of the focal points of the ceasefire agreement involves the reestablishment of transport and communications corridors between Azerbaijan and Armenia in the South Caucasus. While Armenia has found ways to block the implementation of the agreed terms until now, there are now signs that Yerevan is open to changing its position.
In particular, the trilateral agreement mentions reconnecting the Nakhchivan exclave with Azerbaijan proper via the Zangezur corridor. The Zangezur corridor, if established, would make it possible to conduct international transport across the South Caucasus. Moreover, the transport corridor promises to spur the development of economic ties between countries in the South Caucasus and major regional powers Iran, Russia, and Turkey. While Armenia lost its land connection with Iran to Azerbaijani forces during the Second Karabkh War, active engagement with Russia and Azerbaijan could mean the reestablishment of rail connection with Iran through Nakhchivan, offering a potential economic lifeline for Yerevan.
And there are signs that Armenia is willing to engage with Azerbaijan despite enduring animosity. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan won the Armenian parliamentary elections in June this year, and has since pursued a more cooperation-minded approach to the region. As Baku actively develops the territories it seized from Armenia through large investment projects aimed at improving transport connections to the rest of the country, Yerevan may be re-evaluating its hard-line position by seeking integration rather than isolation. For Russia, striking a delicate balance between the two adversaries is the only way forward as it cannot risk either country drifting closer to Turkey or Iran to the detriment of Russia. Therefore, Moscow pragmatically pursues positive relations with Baku while being careful not to damage its close ties with Yerevan as it oversees the implementation of the ceasefire agreement.
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