In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 7th
Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Seize Darfur, Turkey's Ambitious Gas Hub Plans Raise EU Concerns, and other stories.
Sudan's Rapid Support Forces Seize Darfur
Sudan's paramilitary Rapid Support Forces have seized control of most of the volatile Darfur region as the army rapidly retreats, marking a major shift in the country's civil war. Despite US and Saudi-brokered talks in Jeddah, the RSF continues offensives, establishing parallel governance structures. With key cities besieged, the weakened army vows counterattacks even as the RSF consolidates its power. There are dire warnings Sudan may fracture as both sides aim to form rival administrations.
The RSF's advances in Darfur highlight its rising prominence, but risk further instability. As peace efforts falter, the gulf between warring sides appears unbridgeable barring disarmament. With the RSF dominating on the ground, prospects for unity are increasingly remote. Preventing Sudan's disintegration would require urgent diplomacy and pressure for ceasefires before violence and divisions become intractable. But conditions for reconciliation look distant, particularly with the major powers distracted by other crises. The complex regional dynamics propelling the RSF make de-escalation an even greater challenge.
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India and Australia Build Infrastructure to Monitor Indian Ocean
India and Australia are expanding military infrastructure to monitor key chokepoints into the Indian Ocean. India has upgraded air stations in the Andamans and Nicobar Islands to deploy maritime patrol aircraft. Australia plans a base in the Cocos Islands and is expanding its Stirling naval base to host nuclear submarines. The moves aim to track Chinese warships, especially subs, transiting straits into the ocean.
The buildup reflects concerns in Delhi and Canberra over China's Indian Ocean ambitions. But monitoring chokepoints has limits, as Chinese subs could still slip through undetected. While largely defensive moves, the expansions carry risks of destabilizing arms racing. Yet with shared interests, India and Australia have incentives to collaborate in maritime domain awareness, fusing data on Chinese ship movements. Still, intelligence sharing with the US remains sensitive for India.
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China Urges Myanmar to Ensure Border Stability Cooperation
A recent offensive by ethnic armed groups in Myanmar's Shan State has disrupted border trade and infrastructure projects with China. A Chinese official called on Myanmar's government to cooperate on border stability after shells landed in China. But the government's counterattacks have stalled as rebels capture key border towns. With trade halted and China's economic corridor plans on hold, Beijing is pressing for de-escalation while maintaining engagement with all sides.
For China, the clashes pose challenges to advancing strategic goals in Myanmar amid chronic instability. Securing economic corridors to the Indian Ocean depends on basic border security. But Beijing has limited sway over decentralized rebel forces despite maintaining ties. The government in Myanmar has proven unable to impose its authority or defeat resistance. While China will continue leveraging Myanmar's dependencies, its ambitions remain hostage to conflict. Absent political reconciliation, sporadic unrest will likely persist, frustrating Beijing's economic designs.
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Iraq Pursues Unified National Oil Law
Iraq is pursuing a unified national oil law to consolidate control from Baghdad. This aims to govern oil production in the Kurdish north, challenging its autonomy. With reduced US influence, Russia and China are expanding energy ties, backing greater centralization. The law intends to unify management and shift Iraq's oil sector away from Western companies.
The unified law represents a strategic pivot for Iraq's oil industry toward Russia and China. For Baghdad, it extends authority over the semi-autonomous Kurdish sector. But it risks stirring Kurdish resentment and instability. As Western stakeholders are sidelined, Russia and China gain leverage, advancing their Middle East energy interests. However, centralized governance of Iraq's divided oil regions may prove difficult to implement. With Kurdish independence aspirations unresolved, the law could spark fresh turmoil. While the shift may be inexorable, a heavy-handed overhaul risks provoking the very fractures it seeks to repair.
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Low Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Threatens Southern Ocean Ecosystems
A new scientific assessment warns Antarctic sea ice extent has hit record lows, disrupting Southern Ocean ecosystems. Warming waters, melting glaciers, and acidification endanger krill and penguins to whales. Sea ice loss impacts the food chain base. The report calls for urgent climate action and expanded research to aid conservation. It was modeled on IPCC processes to inform policymakers on ecosystem threats.
The analysis underscores the Southern Ocean's vulnerability to climate shifts, with existential consequences for Antarctica's biodiversity. Vanishing sea ice leaves marine life increasingly imperiled and Antarctica exposed. More sustained observation and modeling is needed to fully grasp impacts. The findings demonstrate Antarctica's interconnectedness with global systems. As climate change accelerates, conserving the Southern Ocean's ecological balance grows more challenging but vital. Antarctica's future health and stability depends on rapid decarbonization worldwide. The assessment highlights the need to treat Antarctica as a global, not just regional, priority.
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Turkey's Ambitious Gas Hub Plans Raise EU Concerns
Turkey plans to establish itself as a gas hub, linking Eastern suppliers like Russia with European markets. But opaque deals like one with Bulgaria have sparked concerns in the European Union that Russian natural gas may flow to Europe via Turkey, circumventing EU diversification efforts. While advancing Turkey's ambitions, collaboration with Russia risks alienating some EU member states.
Turkey faces dilemmas in balancing its aspirations to be an energy crossroads in achieving its hub vision. The lack of transparency risks resentment from both EU states and Turkey's own citizens. Yet European energy firms also seem tempted by access to cheap gas despite geopolitical costs. The competing incentives highlight fundamental challenges around energy security, national interests and geopolitics faced by all sides. As an axis of past rivalry, Russia-Turkey energy ties require delicate balancing acts. However, with pragmatic compromise Turkey could still emerge as an independent hub and avoid zero-sum outcomes.