In Geopolitics Today - Tuesday, November 16th
Ceasefire Between Azerbaijan and Armenia Remains Fragile and France Launches Three Intelligence Satellites into Space
Ceasefire Between Azerbaijan and Armenia Remains Fragile
Intense fighting has once again broken out between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The latest escalation took place after several days of rising tensions, which included multiple exchanges of fire, and saw road traffic restricted by Azerbaijani forces on two roads along the country’s border with Armenia. Azerbaijani forces have maintained checkpoints which have targeted Iranian trucks attempting to bring supplies to Armenia through the disputed Karabakh region. Recent escalatory actions taken by both sides are occurring just a year after the signing of the ceasefire that ended last year’s war between the two, and the situation remains fragile.
Last week saw signs of progress in resolving the feud when the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia met in Paris. But since then, as political tensions have transformed into military skirmishes, upholding the ceasefire agreement has evidently not been the priority of either Baku or Yerevan. In the face of military clashes, each side has made appeals to their respective security guarantors rather than each other: Armenian officials conducted talks with their Russian counterparts; while Azerbaijani officials held a phone conversation with the Minister of National Defense of Turkey. All of this is taking place as the two sides are reportedly negotiating new agreements over a formal demarcation of the border and on the opening of new transportation routes between the two countries.
As the primary actor responsible for enforcing the ceasefire under the 2020 agreement, Russia must maintain order through its peacekeeping force. In response to the recent skirmishes, Moscow has called on both sides to cease all hostile military activities. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu attempted to de-escalate by calling on his Armenian and Azerbaijani counterparts to stop actions which further escalate the situation. Shoigu also expressed a readiness to make every possible effort to end the hostilities, return prisoners of war and bring about a lasting solution to the situation. Since Shoigu’s intervention, Russia has said that clashes in Mount Kilisali, where much of the fighting has been taking place, have stopped and that the situation is back to normal. Whether fighting has indeed ceased is difficult to confirm, but given that negotiations over a lasting agreement are ongoing, each side may yet choose to make gains on the ground in order to achieve a more favourable outcome at the negotiating table.
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France Launches Three Intelligence Satellites into Space
France has successfully launched three military signals intelligence satellites into space. The satellites were launched from the country’s spaceport in French Guiana aboard an Arianespace Vega rocket, and will bolster French intelligence collection capabilities. The constellation — called capacité de renseignement électromagnétique spatiale, or CERES — will allow France to have improved access to unique intelligence capabilities by allowing its armed forces to actively listen to radar signals. The three CERES satellites will fly in a triangular formation, circling the Earth over the same location at roughly the same time each day.
The French Minister of Defense, Florence Parly, hailed the launch as a symbol of France’s growing sovereignty and strategic independence in the space domain. CERES is one of many satellite programs being funded under France’s 2019-2025 military reform program. The three CERES satellites will enter low-Earth orbit roughly 700 km above the surface, and will considerably bolster the singals intelligence capabilities of the French armed forces by allowing for the collection of data previously inaccessible from sensors on the ground. Until now, France has heavily relied on the United States for this type of intelligence data, but the successful launch of the CERES constellation means France joins a select group of military powers which can boast of indigenous location tracking, jamming, communications, and cyberattack capabilities from space.
The CERES satellites will enable France to better map the locations of telecommunications centers or radars that detect, trigger or control enemy systems. Moreover, France will no longer have to seek out US assistance to support the operations of its armed forces, and will be able to enhance existing air superiority missions while also negating an adversaries denial of access zones. In addition, these satellites will be of great interest to the French navy because they will enable accurate real-time tracking of ships, whether civilian or military. At a time when the maritime domain is increasingly being contested in the Mediterranean and the Pacific, the capabilities offered by the CERES satellites will enable more effective means of deploying French national power going forward.
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