In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 29th
Germany and Qatar Sign 15-Year LNG Deal, Iraq’s Prime Minister asks Iran to Expand Natural Gas Transfers, and other stories.
Germany and Qatar Sign 15-Year LNG Deal
Qatar and Germany has signed a long-term natural gas deal that will allow Germany to permanently diversify away from Russian gas. The Qatari Energy Minister has said this will translate to deliveries of up to two million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) per year to Germany from 2026 onwards
Russia's war on Ukraine had prompted Germany to find an alternative source to Moscow's gas - however, Germans still have a looming cold winter to cope with. In particular, Berlin is desperate to secure long-term contracts to avoid making more energy purchases at volatile spot prices. This gas contract is set to last for 15 years, with the LNG transported by the US firm ConocoPhillips to a new port terminal at Brunsbuttel.
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Insurgents in Pakistan End Ceasefire with Islamabad
Insurgents belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) have ended a months-long ceasefire with the government in Islamabad, ordering its fighters to resume attacks across the country. The group said in a statement that “it is imperative” for its supporters to “carry out attacks wherever you can” in Pakistan.
The TTP have for years used Afghanistan’s rugged border regions for staging cross-border attacks into Pakistan. Islamabad and the TTP had agreed to an indefinite cease-fire in May after talks in Kabul, but the agreement now appears to be redundant. The TTP has been fighting for stricter enforcement of Islamic laws in the country, the release of their members who are in government custody, and a reduction of Pakistan’s military presence in the country’s former tribal regions.
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Turkey Warns Finland and Sweden Must ‘Take Steps’ to Join NATO
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has relayed to NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg that Turkey will not formally approve Finland and Sweden’s membership of NATO until the two countries take the necessary steps.
Finland and Sweden have shifted from long-held policies of non-alignment and scrambled to become NATO members since. Erdogan threatened to block their bids and has sought concessions, leading to a deal between Turkey, Finland and Sweden that included provisions on the removal weapon transfer bans, extraditions and sharing information.
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Iraq’s Prime Minister asks Iran to Expand Natural Gas Transfers
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani has travelled to Iran and met with Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In their meetings, Sudani is said to have asked Raisi to expand gas deliveries in order to enable Iraq to meet its electricity demands.
The previous Iraqi government was working hard to diversify electricity production away from Iran by expanding grid connections with Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations, while also setting up solar power farms. It is not clear yet if the new government will continue with this policy or will seek more reliance on Iranian gas and electricity. The visit to Tehran is Sudani’s third foreign trip since he became prime minister last month, and follows visits to Jordan and Kuwait earlier this month.
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The US Agrees $1B Arms Sale to Qatar
The United States has approved a $1 billion arms sale to Qatar that will see Doha receive a major boost in anti-drone capabilities. Qatar has been looking to buy armed MQ-9B Predator drones, as part of a plan to boost their defensive capabilities.
The US State Department has said the sale would support the foreign policy and national security objectives of the United States by “helping to improve the security of a friendly country that continues to be an important force for political stability and economic progress” in the Middle East. For Washington, the deal promises continued Qatari dependency on US-built systems and parts while improving Qatar’s capability to meet current and future drone threats.