In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 8th
The Russian Navy Pulls Warships from Black Sea into Port, The Middle East Emerges as an Arms Exporting Region, and other stories.
The Russian Navy Pulls Warships from Black Sea into Port
The recent Ukrainian attack on the Russian Black Sea naval base of Sevastopol, in which unmanned surface vessels and unmanned aerial vehicles attacked Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, appears to have pushed Russian naval assets further into their naval bases.
Sevastopol has been Russia’s main naval base in the region since it annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014. The Naval base at Sevastopol is the main naval base used by Russian forces in the war in Ukraine and home to the bulk of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. While this is still the case, a number of significant naval assets have recently transferred to the base at Novorossiysk, indicating a reluctance by Moscow to endanger its naval assets to more Ukrainian attacks.
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The US Signals Ukraine Must Appear Open to Negotiations with Russia
The US government is reportedly encouraging Ukraine's leadership in private to drop their stated refusal to engage in any peace talks with Russia unless President Vladimir Putin is removed from power.
The suggestion by US officials is likely aimed at helping Ukraine maintain the sympathy and support of a number of countries that are growing weary of the war. As Washington continues to push its allies to embrace a long war that would significantly degrade Russian military capabilities in the medium- and long-term, Kiev has remained steadfast in rejecting any form of peace negotiations.
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The Middle East Emerges as an Arms Exporting Region
Having historically been reliant on outside powers for the supply of weapons, the Middle East is quickly developing its own arms industry. The development marks a pivotal shift for a region that has relied on powers like the Soviet Union and the United States for military acquisitions across much of the 20th century.
According to an overview of the arms industry published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the Middle East and North Africa are regions with some of the most significant growth in domestic arms production. This process has been helped by the arrival of advanced US weapons systems following the Gulf War, Israeli technological advancements, and an overall thaw in regional tensions caused in part by a changing calculus of great powers.
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Egypt and the UAE Sign Major Wind Energy Deal
On the side-lines of the COP27 climate summit, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have agreed to jointly develop one of the world's largest wind farms. The project entails building a 10-gigawatt (GW) onshore wind project in Egypt that is expected to produce 47,790 GWh of clean energy annually upon completion.
Emirati President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan joined his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah al-Sisi at the signing of the agreement between the UAE's Masdar renewable energy firm and Egypt's Infinity Power and Hassan Allam Utilities. The wind farm is projected to save Egypt an estimated $5 billion in annual natural gas import costs and help create as many as 100,000 jobs, the announcement stated.
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China Concerned over the Potential Use of Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
China has publicly stated its leadership is concerned over the escalating conflict in Ukraine, warning against the use of nuclear weapons. Beijing warned that the international community should “oppose the use of or the threat to use” nuclear weapons, and that a nuclear war must not be fought.
The comment is the first such rebuke attributed to Chinese leadership since the Russian invasion began in February. China has thus far not provided any military support to Russia or recognized the Ukrainian regions annexed by Russia as sovereign Russian territory. However, it has repeatedly criticised the United States and its NATO allies for ignoring Moscow’s security concerns and for applying crippling sanctions on Russia in response to the invasion.