In Geopolitics Today: Tuesday, November 14th
Russia and China Expand Influence in Iraq's Oil Sector, Greece and Turkey Agree on Confidence-Building Measures, and other stories.
Russia and China Expand Influence in Iraq's Oil Sector
Russia and China are consolidating influence in Iraq's oil sector through new deals and contracts. Russian firm Lukoil extended its West Qurna 2 contract as China expedites work nearby. A Chinese company also gained broad exploration rights, while Exxon's exit from West Qurna 1 will also work to benefit Moscow and Beijing. The moves align with their agenda to counter Western involvement in Iraqi energy.
The duelling oil deals reflect shifting power dynamics in the Middle East. Russia and China aim to pull Iraq away from the West and into a new regional axis. Control over energy resources is key leverage, allowing them to shape Baghdad's strategic orientation. However, lingering rivalries raise supply security issues that could backfire. The energy sector is increasingly becoming an arena for geopolitical competition by external players, with Iraq caught in the middle.
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LNG Dispute Between European Energy Giants and US Exporter
A dispute has emerged between European energy giants and US LNG exporter Venture Global, heightening tensions over long-term supply contracts. Shell, BP, Eni, and other major players, integral to Venture's Louisiana export facility, have lodged accusations that the exporter breached agreements by diverting LNG to the spot market for increased profits amid escalating prices. Venture Global, on the other hand, denies any wrongdoing, setting the stage for a legal battle.
Beyond the immediate commercial discord, the LNG rift poses a considerable threat to global energy security. The reliability of long-term contracts, crucial for sustaining investments in export capacity, is now under scrutiny. The incident exposes the susceptibility of the energy market to disruptions, particularly the risks associated with an overreliance on volatile spot markets. In a broader context, this dispute reflects the cut-throat competition present within global gas supply chains. As stakeholders await the resolution, the outcome could reverberate across the industry, influencing investment decisions and shaping the future landscape of LNG trade.
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Taiwan's Space Security Amid Growing Cyber Threats
Taiwan faces acute threats of cyberattacks on its space-based systems, including communications, surveillance and military satellites. China boasts advanced anti-satellite and cyber capabilities, and could disrupt or destroy Taiwan's space assets during conflict. Taiwan is responding by building satellite networks with US support. But significant vulnerabilities remain.
The cyber shadow war in space has far-reaching implications for Taiwan's security and digital connectivity. Knocking out satellites could isolate Taiwan physically and digitally at a critical juncture. Bolstering cyber defences and resilient backup systems is thus urgent to avoid strategic paralysis. But China retains the initiative, necessitating constant vigilance. As satellites become central to economic and military domains, securing these assets is increasingly vital. Taiwan's steps reflect wider challenges of securing the space-cyber nexus amid great power competition.
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Georgia as a Mediating Force in Armenia-Azerbaijan Relations
Georgia is emerging as a key potential mediator between Armenia and Azerbaijan as the countries seek to normalize relations after recent fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh. Recently, Georgian officials hosted talks between the Armenian and Azerbaijani prime ministers at the Silk Road Forum, where the Armenian PM unveiled reconciliation proposals.
Baku and Yerevan increasingly see Tbilisi as an acceptable compromise mediator. Georgia's regional position and balanced ties make it well-suited to facilitate negotiations. Tbilisi's mediating role, if successful, would have strategic benefits. It could reduce Russian influence in the South Caucasus, boost economic ties, and elevate Georgia as a regional leader. For Baku and Yerevan, a regional approach is preferable to great power interference. With major conflicts consuming global attention, regional actors like Georgia are growing more influential.
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Germany's Military Build-up and the New Defence Policy
Germany has unveiled new defence policy guidelines focused on upgrading military capabilities against Russia. The plans call for expanded weapons production, infrastructure, and improved combat readiness. Deterrence of Moscow is deemed the core Bundeswehr task. Diplomatic solutions go unmentioned as Germany frames victory over Russia as imperative.
The renewed strategic emphasis on confronting Russia seeks to cement Germany's leadership role in Europe militarily and within NATO. Though framed as defensive, the posture risks fuelling tensions and arms race dynamics. As Germany grows more militarily assertive, managing alliance relationships and avoiding escalation will be key challenges. Ultimately, the lack of political and diplomatic efforts alongside military build-up reflects a narrow security paradigm that may undermine rather than enhance Germany's position.
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Greece and Turkey Agree on Confidence-Building Measures
Greece and Turkey have agreed to implement confidence-building measures in 2024 after high-level military talks, marking a thaw in recent tensions. The NATO allies will establish a direct line of communication and carry out joint military activities to avoid escalation. This comes amid a broader diplomatic reset following pledged cooperation after earthquakes struck Turkey. However, deep disputes over Aegean territorial claims persist.
The Greek-Turkish détente could have strategic significance, but still faces hurdles. Improved relations would benefit NATO cohesion, especially amid the Ukraine war. They could also advance Turkey's stalled F-16 purchase from the United States. However, congressional opposition lingers absent definitive progress. Ultimately, a sustained bilateral thaw between the two powers requires reconciling fundamental disagreements on maritime boundaries and airspace. While promising, the fledgling trust-building measures must translate into tangible cooperation before true reconciliation is achieved.